{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abc89120-13b9-4592-8fe0-13501b00fce6", "symbol": "EXS1", "name": "iShares Core DAX UCITS ETF (DE) EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.863, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.178, "architecture_energy": 71.728, "architecture_maturity": 15.536, "architecture_confidence": 72.165, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.53, "rotation_up": 67.29, "upward_expansion": 88.2, "deceleration": 46.18, "rotation_down": 15.57, "downward_expansion": 14.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 211.103335, 209.159092, 206.401715, 204.203485 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 216.949997, "trend_reference": 202.908001, "distance_from_trend": 0.069204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 173.914102, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247455, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.709022, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060362, "excess_performance": -0.11053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069204, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01327, "read": "Rising" 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181.059998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 8.8e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004024, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.086838, "worst_return": -0.112195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017969, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.018951, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125663, "worst_return": -0.071304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052339, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.048516, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.172991, "worst_return": -0.012192, 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202.404818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 206.800003, "volume": 8800, "typical_volume": 68316.7, "trend": 202.374667, "fair_value": 172.875256, "relative_strength": -9.405878, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.179677, "energy": 46.954617, "activity_lines": [ 206.740001, 206.301819, 203.929763, 202.701721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 211.350006, "volume": 18894, "typical_volume": 64977.8, "trend": 202.648001, "fair_value": 173.373269, "relative_strength": -7.745518, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.304513, "energy": 44.482688, "activity_lines": [ 208.250003, 207.275456, 204.94062, 203.280775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 216.949997, "volume": 27569, "typical_volume": 59910.55, "trend": 202.908001, "fair_value": 173.914102, "relative_strength": -7.709022, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.17765, "energy": 71.728383, "activity_lines": [ 211.103335, 209.159092, 206.401715, 204.203485 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }