{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abc8967e-6428-4add-9312-2685edeeda10", "symbol": "N2IU", "name": "Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.903, "architecture_energy": 15.423, "architecture_maturity": 21.985, "architecture_confidence": 61.598, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.98, "rotation_up": 35.96, "upward_expansion": 34.22, "deceleration": 42.57, "rotation_down": 26.55, "downward_expansion": 44.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.300267, 1.295231, 1.292028, 1.304798 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.28, "trend_reference": 1.330756, "distance_from_trend": -0.038141, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.229052, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041453, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.673661, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097823, "excess_performance": -0.252659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038141, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041453, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206737, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097823, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.206233, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75219300, "relative_activity": 1.336557, "balance": 1.206233, "dry_up": 1.310406, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031638, "annualized_volatility": 0.16551, "from_high_reference": -0.116235, "from_low_reference": 0.04918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.330756, "fair_value_reference": 1.229052, "structural_low": 1.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.015789, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.000184, "regime_survival": 0.368421, "best_return": 0.141732, "worst_return": -0.107317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.038723, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026639, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.136351, "worst_return": -0.157609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.063331, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.099437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164048, "worst_return": -0.164508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.084694, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.114148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111892, "worst_return": -0.096543, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050359, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075862, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059173, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.17658, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007463, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023199, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.278339, "volume": 33351300, "typical_volume": 36544724.0, "trend": 1.400105, "fair_value": 1.465413, "relative_strength": -6.471651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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24.986469, "activity_lines": [ 1.283162, 1.278288, 1.291214, 1.313979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.320253, "volume": 71764100, "typical_volume": 53008219.5, "trend": 1.342883, "fair_value": 1.229953, "relative_strength": -16.411055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.54966, "energy": 17.40706, "activity_lines": [ 1.296467, 1.286667, 1.292376, 1.312329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.3104, "volume": 59851100, "typical_volume": 53268984.5, "trend": 1.339286, "fair_value": 1.229419, "relative_strength": -17.936607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.896011, "energy": 16.367594, "activity_lines": [ 1.303138, 1.292341, 1.292975, 1.310234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.3104, "volume": 88155600, "typical_volume": 55568639.5, "trend": 1.335366, "fair_value": 1.229311, "relative_strength": -18.202859, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.840048, "energy": 14.678328, "activity_lines": [ 1.307116, 1.296917, 1.293902, 1.30837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.28, "volume": 75219300, "typical_volume": 56278394.5, "trend": 1.330756, "fair_value": 1.229052, "relative_strength": -20.673661, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.902788, "energy": 15.422794, "activity_lines": [ 1.300267, 1.295231, 1.292028, 1.304798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }