{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abcc05f4-6174-4d6d-b3e2-87f23eb97831", "symbol": "TW", "name": "Taylor Wimpey plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.148, "architecture_energy": 11.175, "architecture_maturity": 78.136, "architecture_confidence": 50.287, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.75, "rotation_up": 28.5, "upward_expansion": 25.82, "deceleration": 49.58, "rotation_down": 24.55, "downward_expansion": 50.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.818867, 0.812367, 0.80823, 0.83267 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.8454, "trend_reference": 0.882002, "distance_from_trend": -0.041499, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.064913, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.206132, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.643464, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.186483, "excess_performance": -0.237718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041499, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069691, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.206132, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021764, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054964, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186483, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.774961, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129675779, "relative_activity": 1.315992, "balance": 0.774961, "dry_up": 0.89313, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063339, "annualized_volatility": 0.369724, "from_high_reference": -0.252096, "from_low_reference": 0.134461 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.882002, "fair_value_reference": 1.064913, "structural_low": 0.7452, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.020446, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.013544, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.16932, "worst_return": -0.138473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.020674, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.063389, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.167306, "worst_return": -0.146242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022862, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.043436, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.439134, "worst_return": -0.295458, "sufficient": true 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.8326, "volume": 60480785, "typical_volume": 113987162.2, "trend": 0.903423, "fair_value": 1.067145, "relative_strength": -16.166466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.892884, "energy": 21.349975, "activity_lines": [ 0.813493, 0.801415, 0.809146, 0.847931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8278, "volume": 56453580, "typical_volume": 108285820.65, "trend": 0.897423, "fair_value": 1.066568, "relative_strength": -17.108092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.880249, "energy": 17.958995, "activity_lines": [ 0.81904, 0.807422, 0.809192, 0.843052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.78, "volume": 105420196, "typical_volume": 106520854.6, "trend": 0.888896, "fair_value": 1.065498, "relative_strength": -22.341205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.357267, "energy": 25.661731, "activity_lines": [ 0.806107, 0.803807, 0.805275, 0.835476 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8454, "volume": 129675779, "typical_volume": 98538425.15, "trend": 0.882002, "fair_value": 1.064913, "relative_strength": -15.643464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.147866, "energy": 11.174806, "activity_lines": [ 0.818867, 0.812367, 0.80823, 0.83267 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }