{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abcdf827-a491-47f6-83dc-40bc9a23b5ad", "symbol": "0565", "name": "Art Group Holdings Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.863, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.209, "architecture_energy": 34.486, "architecture_maturity": 43.593, "architecture_confidence": 78.638, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.6, "rotation_up": 50.51, "upward_expansion": 76.27, "deceleration": 62.77, "rotation_down": 23.85, "downward_expansion": 5.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.031667, 2.981364, 2.9375, 2.851817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.295, "trend_reference": 2.634667, "distance_from_trend": 0.250633, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.143725, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.880936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 50.871555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.771505, "excess_performance": 0.786796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.250633, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241206, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.880936, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336149, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.508716, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.771505, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.154881, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56246000, "relative_activity": 1.817475, "balance": 1.154881, "dry_up": 1.58092, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101552, "annualized_volatility": 0.600981, "from_high_reference": -0.058571, "from_low_reference": 2.138095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.634667, "fair_value_reference": 1.143725, "structural_low": 1.64, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.031679, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.001583, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.45283, "worst_return": -0.513433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.08547, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.105656, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.348993, "worst_return": -0.409677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017094, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.28474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.912752, "worst_return": -0.575002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.162393, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.208362, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 5.070207, "worst_return": -0.399178, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.904762, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031447, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", 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38.698725, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.044877, "energy": 19.749333, "activity_lines": [ 2.888, 2.901273, 2.883429, 2.775462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 2.975, "volume": 43220000, "typical_volume": 30201776.2, "trend": 2.570167, "fair_value": 1.123432, "relative_strength": 43.85597, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.217675, "energy": 18.956203, "activity_lines": [ 2.909667, 2.911818, 2.895095, 2.805054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 3.295, "volume": 56246000, "typical_volume": 30947326.2, "trend": 2.634667, "fair_value": 1.143725, "relative_strength": 50.871555, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.208855, "energy": 34.485621, "activity_lines": [ 3.031667, 2.981364, 2.9375, 2.851817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }