{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abd25ed7-06d4-4c90-b6a9-36167b7a2840", "symbol": "AFHL", "name": "Afcon Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.064, "architecture_energy": 61.289, "architecture_maturity": 67.389, "architecture_confidence": 64.858, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.07, "rotation_up": 27.72, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 62.14, "rotation_down": 43.23, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 577.453333, 549.672727, 11548.394866, 18725.163025 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 550.0, "trend_reference": 25862.376016, "distance_from_trend": -0.978734, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17187.01115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.967999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.077221, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.982469, "excess_performance": -1.011369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.978734, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280543, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.967999, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.704065, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.980772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.30253, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.982469, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.747317, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94624, "relative_activity": 3.211343, "balance": 0.747317, "dry_up": 2.301764, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.740154, "annualized_volatility": 6.328409, "from_high_reference": -0.98873, "from_low_reference": 0.301159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25862.376016, "fair_value_reference": 17187.01115, "structural_low": 422.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.007823, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.022116, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.425124, "worst_return": -0.152268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025395, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080704, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.154936, "worst_return": -0.253628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.033174, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.07846, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.077525, "worst_return": -0.390256, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.257121, "energy": 66.840421, "activity_lines": [ 561.393333, 2873.447273, 16091.32263, 22209.120582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 600.0, "volume": 52888, "typical_volume": 25355.25, "trend": 26999.129531, "fair_value": 17259.559021, "relative_strength": -97.929564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.594891, "energy": 65.384713, "activity_lines": [ 583.666667, 1335.741818, 13732.283013, 20431.558479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 550.0, "volume": 94624, "typical_volume": 29465.55, "trend": 25862.376016, "fair_value": 17187.01115, "relative_strength": -98.077221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.063531, "energy": 61.289239, "activity_lines": [ 577.453333, 549.672727, 11548.394866, 18725.163025 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }