{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abd675d8-ced2-48c8-9b3e-cc5c5f99730d", "symbol": "TID", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI China UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.353, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.764, "architecture_energy": 16.753, "architecture_maturity": 98.84, "architecture_confidence": 63.758, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.23, "rotation_up": 38.18, "upward_expansion": 22.34, "deceleration": 41.17, "rotation_down": 19.04, "downward_expansion": 54.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.706667, 23.301819, 23.501048, 23.778796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.15, "trend_reference": 24.323333, "distance_from_trend": -0.007126, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.552073, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.80671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059579, "excess_performance": -0.214415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007126, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045308, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095307, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059579, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.25875, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29198, "relative_activity": 0.75658, "balance": 1.25875, "dry_up": 1.316966, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040357, "annualized_volatility": 0.205103, "from_high_reference": -0.155003, "from_low_reference": 0.139506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.323333, "fair_value_reference": 21.552073, "structural_low": 21.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.02633, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.023657, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.149915, "worst_return": -0.145525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.062425, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.044742, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.114657, "worst_return": -0.130008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.055381, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.032294, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.113408, "worst_return": -0.185801, "sufficient": true 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"2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061069, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.288609, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.072316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048945, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033613, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 18.5, "volume": 30750, "typical_volume": 31186.65, "trend": 19.842, "fair_value": 25.54891, "relative_strength": -3.939566, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", 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"activity_lines": [ 22.716, 23.069819, 23.598476, 24.035591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.950001, "volume": 29166, "typical_volume": 35229.0, "trend": 24.598667, "fair_value": 21.477201, "relative_strength": -22.530997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.260478, "energy": 47.436301, "activity_lines": [ 22.788667, 22.978364, 23.505572, 23.92271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.030001, "volume": 47344, "typical_volume": 35383.7, "trend": 24.49, "fair_value": 21.496304, "relative_strength": -22.884235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.2231, "energy": 35.404798, "activity_lines": [ 22.920001, 22.936364, 23.430667, 23.821506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.09, "volume": 97590, "typical_volume": 38829.85, "trend": 24.412, "fair_value": 21.522265, "relative_strength": -19.453929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.028607, "energy": 18.611642, "activity_lines": [ 23.386001, 23.116364, 23.460857, 23.795699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.15, "volume": 29198, "typical_volume": 38592.1, "trend": 24.323333, "fair_value": 21.552073, "relative_strength": -19.80671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.763701, "energy": 16.753302, "activity_lines": [ 23.706667, 23.301819, 23.501048, 23.778796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }