{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "abd934c6-f785-4d58-968c-0ed7f50756db",
    "symbol": "EXSB",
    "name": "iShares DivDAX UCITS ETF (DE)",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 84.998,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 54.15,
    "architecture_energy": 55.669,
    "architecture_maturity": 4.616,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.213,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.34,
        "rotation_up": 75.61,
        "upward_expansion": 53.56,
        "deceleration": 33.21,
        "rotation_down": 16.03,
        "downward_expansion": 14.23
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        21.698175,
        21.37056,
        21.311225,
        21.290621
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 21.995001,
    "trend_reference": 21.298571,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.032698,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 18.995128,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.157929,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.990213,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.013828,
    "excess_performance": -0.069055,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032698,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006208,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.157929,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007737,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.049902,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.058826,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013828,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.055724,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2866,
      "relative_activity": 1.71663,
      "balance": 1.055724,
      "dry_up": 0.987542,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.015261,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.15412,
      "from_high_reference": -0.006998,
      "from_low_reference": 0.142954
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 21.298571,
      "fair_value_reference": 18.995128,
      "structural_low": 19.586,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.014598,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013473,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.124911,
        "worst_return": -0.180712,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.104699,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.081622,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.134831,
        "worst_return": -0.123502,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.086629,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00977,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.107532,
        "worst_return": -0.189118,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.007509,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004791,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.035497,
        "worst_return": -0.050516,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.056023,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007415,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.034889,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.108826,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0345,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -9.1e-05,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.017874,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023395,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.007641,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.09775,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.012874,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.040049,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.03492,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 1456.0,
        "trend": 17.138787,
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 3569.55,
        "trend": 20.937467,
        "fair_value": 18.634265,
        "relative_strength": 1.702903,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.902919,
        "energy": 51.823474,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "trend": 20.993033,
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        "energy": 55.972299,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 21.209999,
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        "typical_volume": 3818.15,
        "trend": 21.048433,
        "fair_value": 18.686663,
        "relative_strength": -1.190955,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 24.231333,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.496666,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 3385.55,
        "trend": 21.1083,
        "fair_value": 18.71324,
        "relative_strength": -2.729828,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 31.280339,
        "energy": 13.723357,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 3509.3,
        "trend": 21.167167,
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        "relative_strength": -2.270232,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 28.587378,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 2530,
        "typical_volume": 3635.8,
        "trend": 21.207167,
        "fair_value": 18.767937,
        "relative_strength": -1.93931,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "energy": 14.203897,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 21.221087,
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        "relative_strength": -6.466179,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "energy": 54.780021,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 21.231121,
        "fair_value": 18.830345,
        "relative_strength": -10.6116,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 82.721911,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3579.3,
        "trend": 21.238651,
        "fair_value": 18.857261,
        "relative_strength": -8.859257,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 20.937616,
        "volume": 1101,
        "typical_volume": 3120.55,
        "trend": 21.231071,
        "fair_value": 18.881272,
        "relative_strength": -8.419123,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.017863,
        "energy": 70.139314,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 21.235001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3003.95,
        "trend": 21.238405,
        "fair_value": 18.90607,
        "relative_strength": -7.631527,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -38.033411,
        "energy": 26.449075,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.990767,
          20.978495,
          21.131446,
          21.186183
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 21.49,
        "volume": 3729,
        "typical_volume": 2972.25,
        "trend": 21.254405,
        "fair_value": 18.931938,
        "relative_strength": -6.167756,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -5.444832,
        "energy": 18.014986,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.198133,
          21.060365,
          21.166221,
          21.202415
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 21.905001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2964.7,
        "trend": 21.278405,
        "fair_value": 18.963322,
        "relative_strength": -4.307145,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 31.284563,
        "energy": 36.552579,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.482075,
          21.212599,
          21.237116,
          21.244389
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 21.995001,
        "volume": 2866,
        "typical_volume": 1669.55,
        "trend": 21.298571,
        "fair_value": 18.995128,
        "relative_strength": -4.990213,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 54.149961,
        "energy": 55.668885,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.698175,
          21.37056,
          21.311225,
          21.290621
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}