{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abe0165e-4be1-4b32-8d29-841c43f0b645", "symbol": "L1MN34", "name": "Lumen Technologies, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.711, "architecture_energy": 69.579, "architecture_maturity": 22.455, "architecture_confidence": 78.187, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.63, "rotation_up": 9.56, "upward_expansion": 14.93, "deceleration": 38.08, "rotation_down": 77.32, "downward_expansion": 92.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.493332, 34.699454, 39.002904, 39.498752 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 32.099998, "trend_reference": 40.412, "distance_from_trend": -0.205682, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.026795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233344, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.91236, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238795, "excess_performance": -0.181747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.205682, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060426, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.530897, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232275, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238795, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.642228, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17793, "relative_activity": 2.505545, "balance": 1.642228, "dry_up": 1.018243, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179751, "annualized_volatility": 0.745231, "from_high_reference": -0.494806, "from_low_reference": 0.591472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.412, "fair_value_reference": 26.026795, "structural_low": 29.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.029296, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.021016, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.647841, "worst_return": -0.387364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.067966, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.030643, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 3.331845, "worst_return": -0.563598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.13329, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.10018, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 5.41369, "worst_return": -0.650338, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.488111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083261, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.197639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022864, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.184944, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.201214, "energy": 36.651755, "activity_lines": [ 37.749332, 41.631818, 42.190095, 41.811183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.950001, "volume": 3765, "typical_volume": 6251.4, "trend": 41.430333, "fair_value": 25.567949, "relative_strength": -22.356144, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.423927, "energy": 65.427744, "activity_lines": [ 35.249333, 39.451454, 41.333762, 41.171032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.619999, "volume": 782, "typical_volume": 6169.0, "trend": 41.091667, "fair_value": 25.721859, "relative_strength": -20.925213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.144652, "energy": 72.83017, "activity_lines": [ 33.728666, 37.564181, 40.561238, 40.602624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.68, "volume": 6584, "typical_volume": 6415.75, "trend": 40.798333, "fair_value": 25.879359, "relative_strength": -22.712975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.611297, "energy": 71.876746, "activity_lines": [ 32.838666, 36.058363, 39.80419, 40.059935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.099998, "volume": 17793, "typical_volume": 7101.45, "trend": 40.412, "fair_value": 26.026795, "relative_strength": -21.91236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.710717, "energy": 69.578587, "activity_lines": [ 32.493332, 34.699454, 39.002904, 39.498752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }