{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abe7e2b4-6d24-4b87-9d7f-b01344c35315", "symbol": "SAMS", "name": "Samse SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.22, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.436, "architecture_energy": 9.718, "architecture_maturity": 5.753, "architecture_confidence": 54.556, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.95, "rotation_up": 22.9, "upward_expansion": 20.33, "deceleration": 41.62, "rotation_down": 33.05, "downward_expansion": 56.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 118.633333, 118.543666, 118.529633, 119.232146 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 120.5, "trend_reference": 120.304083, "distance_from_trend": 0.001629, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 143.265593, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158905, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.549794, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.051181, "excess_performance": -0.104492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001629, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018978, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158905, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019714, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051181, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.758845, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 374, "relative_activity": 0.427087, "balance": 0.758845, "dry_up": 0.78737, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021243, "annualized_volatility": 0.135219, "from_high_reference": -0.196667, "from_low_reference": 0.091668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.304083, "fair_value_reference": 143.265593, "structural_low": 110.381527, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017241, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.013985, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.085616, "worst_return": -0.082283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.050701, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.013043, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.050263, "worst_return": -0.084469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.083276, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013354, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171271, "worst_return": -0.130887, "sufficient": false 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"2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044715, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 164.605057, "volume": 5924, "typical_volume": 1484.1, "trend": 164.248481, "fair_value": 143.92831, "relative_strength": 1.423068, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"2026-06-12", "close": 117.580322, "volume": 217, "typical_volume": 1139.25, "trend": 122.102075, "fair_value": 145.980001, "relative_strength": -12.925363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.566676, "energy": 32.040405, "activity_lines": [ 117.740295, 118.13264, 119.559132, 120.735571 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 118.540161, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 1044.0, "trend": 121.936747, "fair_value": 145.60421, "relative_strength": -12.322503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.948703, "energy": 26.539839, "activity_lines": [ 118.092236, 118.093356, 119.33647, 120.50577 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 119.020081, "volume": 223, "typical_volume": 1026.95, "trend": 121.754083, "fair_value": 145.242997, "relative_strength": -11.042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.151326, "energy": 19.098168, "activity_lines": [ 118.444177, 118.14969, 119.171228, 120.317598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 119.0, "volume": 202, "typical_volume": 1012.05, "trend": 121.554083, "fair_value": 144.884529, "relative_strength": -11.717936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.623919, "energy": 17.322618, "activity_lines": [ 118.693441, 118.274736, 119.042074, 120.139915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 118.5, "volume": 510, "typical_volume": 1022.75, "trend": 121.42075, "fair_value": 144.551608, "relative_strength": -9.67965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.474011, "energy": 15.336014, "activity_lines": [ 118.681392, 118.372509, 118.886728, 119.942877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 118.0, "volume": 345, "typical_volume": 1011.4, "trend": 121.32075, "fair_value": 144.215481, "relative_strength": -9.403557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.802174, "energy": 17.929145, "activity_lines": [ 118.505355, 118.345199, 118.719478, 119.722184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 117.5, "volume": 1007, "typical_volume": 933.3, "trend": 121.154083, "fair_value": 143.881899, "relative_strength": -9.521814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.068673, "energy": 24.318565, "activity_lines": [ 118.134672, 118.245528, 118.537943, 119.475684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.5, "volume": 1032, "typical_volume": 925.5, "trend": 120.62075, "fair_value": 143.562693, "relative_strength": -10.29247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.611326, "energy": 33.478068, "activity_lines": [ 117.833333, 118.121139, 118.384978, 119.239936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.5, "volume": 374, "typical_volume": 875.7, "trend": 120.304083, "fair_value": 143.265593, "relative_strength": -9.549794, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.436303, "energy": 9.718257, "activity_lines": [ 118.633333, 118.543666, 118.529633, 119.232146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }