{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abf2c097-2fb6-481e-95d2-6f4b66056fe3", "symbol": "IBG", "name": "Iberpapel Gesti\u00f3n, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.292, "architecture_energy": 75.69, "architecture_maturity": 32.793, "architecture_confidence": 91.702, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 18.01, "upward_expansion": 16.47, "deceleration": 39.11, "rotation_down": 71.65, "downward_expansion": 94.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.483333, 18.613636, 18.81055, 19.075094 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 18.35, "trend_reference": 19.51951, "distance_from_trend": -0.059915, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.057258, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.099786, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12619, "excess_performance": -0.250621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059915, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021571, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06412, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057764, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.902619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12568, "relative_activity": 0.818613, "balance": 0.902619, "dry_up": 1.536023, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019008, "annualized_volatility": 0.125154, "from_high_reference": -0.142523, "from_low_reference": 0.011019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.51951, "fair_value_reference": 18.057258, "structural_low": 18.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.012181, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.01459, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.090535, "worst_return": -0.096654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052694, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.056432, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.218391, "worst_return": -0.120787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.135714, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006233, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.171954, "worst_return": -0.200879, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014634, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004975, "active": false }, { 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-70.609075, "energy": 58.106955, "activity_lines": [ 18.743333, 18.807434, 19.005102, 19.306935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.5, "volume": 14984, "typical_volume": 15516.7, "trend": 19.647844, "fair_value": 18.001576, "relative_strength": -18.191277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.223482, "energy": 70.229261, "activity_lines": [ 18.636666, 18.744606, 18.938744, 19.229654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.5, "volume": 62923, "typical_volume": 16111.75, "trend": 19.597844, "fair_value": 18.029615, "relative_strength": -18.404238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.035958, "energy": 74.246185, "activity_lines": [ 18.576667, 18.689394, 18.87929, 19.1556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.35, "volume": 12568, "typical_volume": 15352.8, "trend": 19.51951, "fair_value": 18.057258, "relative_strength": -20.099786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.291603, "energy": 75.68969, "activity_lines": [ 18.483333, 18.613636, 18.81055, 19.075094 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }