{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abf9bcaa-1448-4ff9-a7c9-514e3e93edf1", "symbol": "002347", "name": "Taier Heavy Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.152, "architecture_energy": 63.975, "architecture_maturity": 64.727, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 24.78, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.56, "rotation_down": 58.47, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.574, 5.724727, 6.428714, 7.034581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.91, "trend_reference": 8.006333, "distance_from_trend": -0.261834, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.388103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074843, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.843054, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.377239, "excess_performance": -0.384639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.261834, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078885, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074843, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.432891, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278431, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.377239, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.247392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59932643, "relative_activity": 0.837933, "balance": 0.247392, "dry_up": 0.932138, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111285, "annualized_volatility": 0.417914, "from_high_reference": -0.593535, "from_low_reference": 0.226141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.006333, "fair_value_reference": 6.388103, "structural_low": 4.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001113, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021213, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.485366, "worst_return": -0.246801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.208297, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.097827, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.512968, "worst_return": -0.191142, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.343243, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.328183, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.752161, "worst_return": -0.193023, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-70.241791, "energy": 87.965281, "activity_lines": [ 6.22, 6.740364, 7.381714, 7.971634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.65, "volume": 92963502, "typical_volume": 74252104.7, "trend": 8.525, "fair_value": 6.389761, "relative_strength": -36.646351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.806481, "energy": 90.34945, "activity_lines": [ 5.98, 6.456182, 7.163762, 7.782215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.3, "volume": 72579224, "typical_volume": 73876979.7, "trend": 8.436667, "fair_value": 6.387106, "relative_strength": -34.149895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.375297, "energy": 88.227384, "activity_lines": [ 5.712, 6.153455, 6.932, 7.574151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.11, "volume": 68621164, "typical_volume": 72026786.65, "trend": 8.344667, "fair_value": 6.383744, "relative_strength": -36.192865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.547915, "energy": 82.851409, "activity_lines": [ 5.46, 5.875273, 6.704286, 7.359527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.62, "volume": 65549540, "typical_volume": 71625898.65, "trend": 8.222, "fair_value": 6.384611, "relative_strength": -28.237498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.539835, "energy": 66.655028, "activity_lines": [ 5.462, 5.750364, 6.544857, 7.183742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.91, "volume": 59932643, "typical_volume": 71524408.3, "trend": 8.006333, "fair_value": 6.388103, "relative_strength": -27.843054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.152089, "energy": 63.974753, "activity_lines": [ 5.574, 5.724727, 6.428714, 7.034581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }