{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abfa477e-babf-4a1b-bf05-2f76b0cab1f5", "symbol": "600596", "name": "Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Industrial Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.681, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.594, "architecture_energy": 56.438, "architecture_maturity": 11.288, "architecture_confidence": 59.94, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.8, "rotation_up": 6.14, "upward_expansion": 15.76, "deceleration": 48.24, "rotation_down": 73.38, "downward_expansion": 77.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.626, 11.9457, 12.471062, 12.469929 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.06, "trend_reference": 12.512813, "distance_from_trend": -0.116106, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.596628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.406542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142636, "excess_performance": -0.099432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048733, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152488, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054065, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074425, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.956917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 185881993, "relative_activity": 1.063702, "balance": 0.956917, "dry_up": 1.295989, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17617, "annualized_volatility": 0.753194, "from_high_reference": -0.398586, "from_low_reference": 0.164211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.512813, "fair_value_reference": 9.596628, "structural_low": 9.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.001016, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000988, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.255191, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.041677, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.007767, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.358875, "worst_return": -0.195582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008707, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.313932, "worst_return": -0.247874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 6.261784, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.223329, "energy": 36.952094, "activity_lines": [ 14.311333, 14.115062, 13.330336, 13.035042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.33, "volume": 280378730, "typical_volume": 166361156.3, "trend": 12.60648, "fair_value": 9.610506, "relative_strength": -7.591645, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.381811, "energy": 8.255651, "activity_lines": [ 12.859333, 13.509715, 13.086601, 12.887355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.84, "volume": 233978696, "typical_volume": 170239245.55, "trend": 12.567147, "fair_value": 9.605606, "relative_strength": -13.158288, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.724902, "energy": 34.798313, "activity_lines": [ 11.512667, 12.843276, 12.812152, 12.708873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.33, "volume": 205657315, "typical_volume": 172460494.25, "trend": 12.52648, "fair_value": 9.601281, "relative_strength": -9.166523, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.676831, "energy": 39.692875, "activity_lines": [ 10.698667, 12.302295, 12.600178, 12.564541 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.06, "volume": 185881993, "typical_volume": 174750035.2, "trend": 12.512813, "fair_value": 9.596628, "relative_strength": -5.406542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.594144, "energy": 56.438213, "activity_lines": [ 10.626, 11.9457, 12.471062, 12.469929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }