{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abfb8041-b9c6-44e3-82e2-a8fbb9fb9a44", "symbol": "600666", "name": "Aurora Optoelectronics Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.278, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.735, "architecture_energy": 77.796, "architecture_maturity": 23.687, "architecture_confidence": 89.237, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.26, "rotation_up": 13.06, "upward_expansion": 18.9, "deceleration": 37.64, "rotation_down": 69.7, "downward_expansion": 92.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.469333, 3.649818, 4.261524, 4.476882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.85, "trend_reference": 4.508667, "distance_from_trend": -0.146089, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.798526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.375724, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.401985, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096866, "excess_performance": 0.14007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146089, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.375724, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.830595, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05402, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.468064, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096866, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624445, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 967237308, "relative_activity": 0.800133, "balance": 0.624445, "dry_up": 0.609387, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142058, "annualized_volatility": 0.788421, "from_high_reference": -0.491413, "from_low_reference": 0.370107 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.508667, "fair_value_reference": 2.798526, "structural_low": 2.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.059172, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.031166, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.167683, "worst_return": -0.136951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04142, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.037904, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.792683, "worst_return": -0.162602, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.117886, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.037234, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.179878, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023622, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038012, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060519, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023499, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02716, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.312073, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.220974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005168, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.09, "volume": 46419316, "typical_volume": 79276485.7, "trend": 2.575333, "fair_value": 1.773718, "relative_strength": -12.700496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 3.11, "volume": 485271860, "typical_volume": 1278673744.75, "trend": 4.494333, "fair_value": 2.774744, "relative_strength": -20.509912, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.617999, "energy": 74.347771, "activity_lines": [ 3.647333, 4.033636, 4.676143, 4.677333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.18, "volume": 908368211, "typical_volume": 1280315977.5, "trend": 4.490333, "fair_value": 2.780513, "relative_strength": -19.621701, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.034453, "energy": 78.203972, "activity_lines": [ 3.416667, 3.812, 4.507619, 4.592538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.34, "volume": 585742045, "typical_volume": 1236364214.55, "trend": 4.492333, "fair_value": 2.787372, "relative_strength": -15.872169, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.24343, "energy": 76.091154, "activity_lines": [ 3.330667, 3.666364, 4.358333, 4.518323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.85, "volume": 967237308, "typical_volume": 1208845372.65, "trend": 4.508667, "fair_value": 2.798526, "relative_strength": -5.401985, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.735336, "energy": 77.795677, "activity_lines": [ 3.469333, 3.649818, 4.261524, 4.476882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }