{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abfce951-78ef-45bf-bf64-84faff53f046", "symbol": "601668", "name": "China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.33, "architecture_energy": 30.742, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.577, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.04, "rotation_up": 36.32, "upward_expansion": 20.58, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 22.25, "downward_expansion": 56.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.592379, 4.494636, 4.583985, 4.683868 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.52, "trend_reference": 4.81414, "distance_from_trend": -0.061099, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.132786, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.577745, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.103175, "excess_performance": -0.059971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061099, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119387, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064026, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105777, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056542, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.736697, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1198450714, "relative_activity": 1.356961, "balance": 1.736697, "dry_up": 1.633527, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040904, "annualized_volatility": 0.17664, "from_high_reference": -0.2247, "from_low_reference": 0.092526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.81414, "fair_value_reference": 5.132786, "structural_low": 4.137203, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.013097, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.003767, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.175589, "worst_return": -0.141485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002141, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.011485, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.133733, "worst_return": -0.160559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065866, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069433, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.165669, "worst_return": -0.1566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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4.747883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.53, "volume": 1393120778, "typical_volume": 911320156.45, "trend": 4.867806, "fair_value": 5.141622, "relative_strength": -7.914382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.212008, "energy": 66.358116, "activity_lines": [ 4.350439, 4.426137, 4.609997, 4.724712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.7, "volume": 1627004778, "typical_volume": 901251568.7, "trend": 4.850806, "fair_value": 5.138925, "relative_strength": -5.121751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.679094, "energy": 43.836345, "activity_lines": [ 4.479182, 4.456606, 4.605215, 4.713886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7, "volume": 1552262334, "typical_volume": 890478337.4, "trend": 4.834473, "fair_value": 5.135821, "relative_strength": -5.023991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.883807, "energy": 30.1831, "activity_lines": [ 4.584226, 4.491257, 4.6021, 4.704157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.52, "volume": 1198450714, "typical_volume": 883187095.65, "trend": 4.81414, "fair_value": 5.132786, "relative_strength": -10.577745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.329948, "energy": 30.741651, "activity_lines": [ 4.592379, 4.494636, 4.583985, 4.683868 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }