{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abfe576b-b696-4398-978e-a6d2bb6f5fe5", "symbol": "GRID", "name": "First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.109, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.428, "architecture_energy": 18.717, "architecture_maturity": 69.968, "architecture_confidence": 85.039, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.6, "rotation_up": 19.81, "upward_expansion": 43.48, "deceleration": 84.94, "rotation_down": 41.83, "downward_expansion": 35.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.933333, 55.595819, 56.051334, 55.050624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 56.360001, "trend_reference": 53.455167, "distance_from_trend": 0.054342, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.734039, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.383609, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.444604, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132409, "excess_performance": -0.038483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054342, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071568, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.383609, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121006, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132409, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.508779, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 176266, "relative_activity": 1.156147, "balance": 0.508779, "dry_up": 1.353778, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040809, "annualized_volatility": 0.190103, "from_high_reference": -0.046685, "from_low_reference": 0.361682 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.455167, "fair_value_reference": 40.734039, "structural_low": 47.355, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013655, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.001265, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.135146, "worst_return": -0.057554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.067742, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024977, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.152128, "worst_return": -0.175882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.073452, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.069333, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.252541, "worst_return": 0.015762, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053745, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016033, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072881, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.043198, "energy": 60.901616, "activity_lines": [ 57.829333, 57.513091, 55.313381, 53.56071 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 56.900002, "volume": 32302, "typical_volume": 135869.7, "trend": 51.527667, "fair_value": 39.839006, "relative_strength": 3.379823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.661388, "energy": 49.895973, "activity_lines": [ 57.559334, 57.503273, 55.625881, 53.931538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 56.990002, "volume": 22534, "typical_volume": 130698.1, "trend": 51.902167, "fair_value": 39.999615, "relative_strength": 0.399347, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.0402, "energy": 42.91932, "activity_lines": [ 57.381334, 57.455092, 55.913001, 54.283947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 56.18, "volume": 202728, "typical_volume": 134534.95, "trend": 52.272834, "fair_value": 40.154038, "relative_strength": -0.724868, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.724671, "energy": 37.765444, "activity_lines": [ 56.970001, 57.228728, 56.095596, 54.559936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.900002, "volume": 376324, "typical_volume": 147570.1, "trend": 52.5625, "fair_value": 40.290128, "relative_strength": -3.383867, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.529952, "energy": 20.044457, "activity_lines": [ 55.874001, 56.587274, 56.039239, 54.664914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.459999, "volume": 98948, "typical_volume": 145209.5, "trend": 52.865167, "fair_value": 40.429519, "relative_strength": -2.24136, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.493638, "energy": 21.699972, "activity_lines": [ 55.154667, 56.125637, 56.02731, 54.787334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.709999, "volume": 174049, "typical_volume": 150252.35, "trend": 53.123834, "fair_value": 40.572115, "relative_strength": -4.232277, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.612985, "energy": 20.154069, "activity_lines": [ 54.496, 55.582364, 55.922453, 54.841839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.360001, "volume": 176266, "typical_volume": 152459.85, "trend": 53.455167, "fair_value": 40.734039, "relative_strength": -2.444604, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.428083, "energy": 18.716941, "activity_lines": [ 54.933333, 55.595819, 56.051334, 55.050624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }