{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac072970-b9a6-41af-b315-18e6e738bbe0", "symbol": "SPY4", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.278, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.239, "architecture_energy": 59.39, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.655, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.93, "rotation_up": 50.19, "upward_expansion": 81.02, "deceleration": 71.3, "rotation_down": 28.91, "downward_expansion": 10.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 103.26, 103.161454, 101.361619, 99.322494 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 104.709999, "trend_reference": 96.904333, "distance_from_trend": 0.08055, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 85.790833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220527, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.856316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118697, "excess_performance": -0.052195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08055, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054527, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220527, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049672, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028563, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118697, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.913203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12175, "relative_activity": 0.220124, "balance": 0.913203, "dry_up": 0.390669, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020467, "annualized_volatility": 0.112063, "from_high_reference": -0.001335, "from_low_reference": 0.26385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.904333, "fair_value_reference": 85.790833, "structural_low": 87.900002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.008945, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.009313, "regime_survival": 0.69697, "best_return": 0.067725, "worst_return": -0.089529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.016882, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.026733, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.154779, "worst_return": -0.18303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032112, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.010828, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.124704, "worst_return": -0.186047, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.349998, "volume": 12896, "typical_volume": 59875.4, "trend": 96.480333, "fair_value": 85.590064, "relative_strength": -3.228636, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.575112, "energy": 50.118753, "activity_lines": [ 102.648667, 102.726, 100.759286, 98.791548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.709999, "volume": 12175, "typical_volume": 55309.65, "trend": 96.904333, "fair_value": 85.790833, "relative_strength": -2.856316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.238933, "energy": 59.389876, "activity_lines": [ 103.26, 103.161454, 101.361619, 99.322494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }