{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac09d169-a3ba-4404-9567-0fe720cfd6f4", "symbol": "BRW", "name": "Bremworth Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.792, "architecture_energy": 53.235, "architecture_maturity": 16.506, "architecture_confidence": 82.91, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.06, "rotation_up": 12.71, "upward_expansion": 11.61, "deceleration": 37.42, "rotation_down": 69.27, "downward_expansion": 84.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.682667, 0.709909, 0.717905, 0.722011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.65, "trend_reference": 0.727333, "distance_from_trend": -0.106324, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.585545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110077, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.145693, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.133333, "excess_performance": -0.161607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057451, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110077, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183899, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.645389, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 471548, "relative_activity": 2.587242, "balance": 0.645389, "dry_up": 1.354067, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106509, "annualized_volatility": 0.659391, "from_high_reference": -0.297297, "from_low_reference": 0.171171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.727333, "fair_value_reference": 0.585545, "structural_low": 0.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.058839, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.483051, "worst_return": -0.288462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030449, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.070833, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.605263, "worst_return": -0.365385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.130769, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.093063, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.511628, "worst_return": -0.076923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.180456, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.147204, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.418605, "worst_return": -0.057692, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184211, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139241, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.224719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103448, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.43, "volume": 33238, "typical_volume": 64291.1, "trend": 0.401833, "fair_value": 0.4825, "relative_strength": -1.639514, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.199889, "energy": 85.844352, "activity_lines": [ 0.459333, 0.441727, 0.416333, 0.403258 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.415, "volume": 52077, "typical_volume": 61493.9, "trend": 0.400667, "fair_value": 0.482981, "relative_strength": -3.115598, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.869175, "energy": 65.733371, "activity_lines": [ 0.446, 0.439636, 0.418286, 0.404108 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 0.49, "volume": 189990, "typical_volume": 69277.35, "trend": 0.400333, "fair_value": 0.483974, "relative_strength": 14.323039, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.146073, "energy": 55.146615, "activity_lines": [ 0.456667, 0.450727, 0.427214, 0.409871 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 0.49, "volume": 126295, "typical_volume": 74204.25, "trend": 0.399333, "fair_value": 0.484808, "relative_strength": 16.553461, "stage": 2, "regime": 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10.082586, "activity_lines": [ 0.752, 0.740182, 0.734619, 0.733892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.725, "volume": 376966, "typical_volume": 197803.6, "trend": 0.738, "fair_value": 0.581763, "relative_strength": -5.7026, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.522793, "energy": 10.354062, "activity_lines": [ 0.746, 0.738364, 0.733762, 0.732785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.69, "volume": 92013, "typical_volume": 162326.6, "trend": 0.733, "fair_value": 0.583141, "relative_strength": -10.865062, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.635227, "energy": 18.824766, "activity_lines": [ 0.727, 0.730182, 0.72931, 0.729688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.695, "volume": 46636, "typical_volume": 162219.15, "trend": 0.731, "fair_value": 0.584455, "relative_strength": -9.754731, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.206477, "energy": 32.646769, "activity_lines": [ 0.712, 0.724, 0.72569, 0.727237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.65, "volume": 471548, "typical_volume": 182258.95, "trend": 0.727333, "fair_value": 0.585545, "relative_strength": -16.145693, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.791513, "energy": 53.234547, "activity_lines": [ 0.682667, 0.709909, 0.717905, 0.722011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }