{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac0c2c95-36e4-472b-8831-79ecb50ac12e", "symbol": "ASHIMASYN", "name": "Ashima Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.715, "architecture_energy": 58.549, "architecture_maturity": 38.954, "architecture_confidence": 79.87, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.73, "rotation_up": 65.12, "upward_expansion": 82.58, "deceleration": 49.39, "rotation_down": 17.75, "downward_expansion": 18.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.172667, 16.358182, 16.151476, 15.829677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.190001, "trend_reference": 15.655, "distance_from_trend": 0.161929, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.534744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.2271, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.658999, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075059, "excess_performance": 0.118768, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161929, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057647, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.2271, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040576, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01659, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180355, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075059, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.600015, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 408280, "relative_activity": 0.484809, "balance": 6.600015, "dry_up": 2.340819, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09701, "annualized_volatility": 0.455609, "from_high_reference": -0.346389, "from_low_reference": 0.581739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.655, "fair_value_reference": 23.534744, "structural_low": 11.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.032495, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.024232, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.243346, "worst_return": -0.167883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.046823, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.061268, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.448669, "worst_return": -0.409524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.097312, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.126785, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.640741, "worst_return": -0.17415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.108845, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.183002, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.843704, "worst_return": -0.50449, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057637, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.227848, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197861, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.898329, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046102, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152109, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014935, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161738, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15349, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027519, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.242693, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040023, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.65, "volume": 705876, "typical_volume": 642785.0, "trend": 14.025, "fair_value": 14.873077, "relative_strength": -12.795069, "stage": 4, 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15.438086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.85, "volume": 5923389, "typical_volume": 857142.95, "trend": 15.681667, "fair_value": 23.472756, "relative_strength": -3.956278, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.996932, "energy": 13.455706, "activity_lines": [ 15.398667, 15.497636, 15.636381, 15.510194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.08, "volume": 1229626, "typical_volume": 868017.3, "trend": 15.636333, "fair_value": 23.506603, "relative_strength": 1.190506, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.119321, "energy": 34.472965, "activity_lines": [ 16.363333, 15.935636, 15.898619, 15.664925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.190001, "volume": 408280, "typical_volume": 842146.95, "trend": 15.655, "fair_value": 23.534744, "relative_strength": 1.658999, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.715442, "energy": 58.548731, "activity_lines": [ 17.172667, 16.358182, 16.151476, 15.829677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }