{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac13ad91-80d0-47c3-a4d3-6a7f99589c67", "symbol": "KWBE", "name": "KraneShares CSI China Internet UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.518, "architecture_energy": 20.142, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 52.273, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.86, "rotation_up": 43.99, "upward_expansion": 27.46, "deceleration": 41.28, "rotation_down": 12.92, "downward_expansion": 47.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.788267, 12.401382, 12.41679, 12.693811 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.152, "trend_reference": 13.296, "distance_from_trend": -0.01083, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.757962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044044, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.100629, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.13938, "excess_performance": -0.310271, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01083, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089061, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241006, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002386, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13938, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160895, "relative_activity": 0.952915, "balance": 0.708368, "dry_up": 1.223071, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048697, "annualized_volatility": 0.256341, "from_high_reference": -0.289542, "from_low_reference": 0.222078 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.296, "fair_value_reference": 13.757962, "structural_low": 10.762, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.01623, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.02293, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.395777, "worst_return": -0.109615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08901, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.030565, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.749972, "worst_return": -0.117535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.195286, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048191, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.516874, "worst_return": 0.000995, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-29.841771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.441913, "energy": 56.789936, "activity_lines": [ 11.8044, 11.962764, 12.392486, 12.911759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.374, "volume": 233114, "typical_volume": 164248.3, "trend": 13.6102, "fair_value": 13.762692, "relative_strength": -27.742003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.779468, "energy": 43.684104, "activity_lines": [ 11.998533, 11.995782, 12.35639, 12.824804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.302, "volume": 205474, "typical_volume": 162838.55, "trend": 13.5022, "fair_value": 13.754885, "relative_strength": -27.455973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.68699, "energy": 28.579273, "activity_lines": [ 12.154267, 12.032073, 12.321314, 12.740404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.03, "volume": 226555, "typical_volume": 167845.4, "trend": 13.402, "fair_value": 13.753051, "relative_strength": -23.148511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.090325, "energy": 20.992767, "activity_lines": [ 12.514267, 12.2124, 12.361, 12.70994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.152, "volume": 160895, "typical_volume": 168845.05, "trend": 13.296, "fair_value": 13.757962, "relative_strength": -24.100629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.517786, "energy": 20.141692, "activity_lines": [ 12.788267, 12.401382, 12.41679, 12.693811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }