{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac14cbad-31c4-4adc-93d7-e61ce43c7f99", "symbol": "AIGS", "name": "WisdomTree Softs", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 70.954, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.886, "architecture_energy": 83.92, "architecture_maturity": 19.56, "architecture_confidence": 62.516, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.37, "rotation_up": 78.38, "upward_expansion": 91.46, "deceleration": 46.66, "rotation_down": 9.86, "downward_expansion": 18.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.075133, 5.908273, 5.667424, 5.546927 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.352, "trend_reference": 5.431383, "distance_from_trend": 0.169499, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.609394, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132386, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.352976, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.230292, "excess_performance": 0.059401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169499, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132386, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144297, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117723, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.230292, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.995819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16078, "relative_activity": 2.193093, "balance": 0.995819, "dry_up": 1.589474, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041998, "annualized_volatility": 0.250861, "from_high_reference": -0.000629, "from_low_reference": 0.305384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.431383, "fair_value_reference": 5.609394, "structural_low": 4.866, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.007668, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": 0.017835, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.175714, "worst_return": -0.07437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016458, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.032739, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.213671, "worst_return": -0.141529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.078897, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.06354, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.297801, "worst_return": -0.127568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097373, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.119989, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.450127, "worst_return": -0.013295, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051379, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006588, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006134, "active": false 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"typical_volume": 6132.4, "trend": 5.41025, "fair_value": 5.582353, "relative_strength": -7.621389, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.578713, "energy": 85.298459, "activity_lines": [ 5.891533, 5.642727, 5.496019, 5.425371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.93, "volume": 10112, "typical_volume": 6488.25, "trend": 5.417817, "fair_value": 5.590474, "relative_strength": -7.942556, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.214615, "energy": 85.023725, "activity_lines": [ 5.948, 5.719691, 5.546219, 5.458903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.853, "volume": 8770, "typical_volume": 6613.75, "trend": 5.422817, "fair_value": 5.598032, "relative_strength": -9.447092, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.316007, "energy": 81.595274, "activity_lines": [ 5.9378, 5.772618, 5.584629, 5.48698 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.352, "volume": 16078, "typical_volume": 7331.2, "trend": 5.431383, "fair_value": 5.609394, "relative_strength": -4.352976, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.886323, "energy": 83.919973, "activity_lines": [ 6.075133, 5.908273, 5.667424, 5.546927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }