{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac16d0c7-4aa2-4003-8a3f-b07f0a1bd8ea", "symbol": "SOLEX", "name": "SOLEX ENERGY LIMITED", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -45.121, "architecture_energy": 68.674, "architecture_maturity": 19.817, "architecture_confidence": 74.943, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.48, "rotation_up": 17.03, "upward_expansion": 23.57, "deceleration": 43.34, "rotation_down": 76.2, "downward_expansion": 67.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 932.100004, 980.294552, 1071.440004, 1077.054842 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 911.700012, "trend_reference": 1069.708333, "distance_from_trend": -0.147712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1122.486547, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.187785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.318023, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.090392, "excess_performance": -0.046683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138167, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.187785, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.377716, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283817, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090392, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.133692, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94673, "relative_activity": 0.36815, "balance": 0.133692, "dry_up": 0.527466, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104825, "annualized_volatility": 0.481536, "from_high_reference": -0.540705, "from_low_reference": 0.146144 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1069.708333, "fair_value_reference": 1122.486547, "structural_low": 795.450012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048232, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.265572, "worst_return": -0.104849, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.770681, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.695842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.817996, "worst_return": 0.145307, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.34555, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 1.337656, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.266087, "worst_return": -0.10869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1109.917099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 938.0, "volume": 139012, "typical_volume": 280082.45, "trend": 1090.401664, "fair_value": 1119.288241, "relative_strength": -22.573536, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.698885, "energy": 59.595918, "activity_lines": [ 988.626676, 1037.218191, 1112.037862, 1099.283443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 910.799988, "volume": 128299, "typical_volume": 265989.6, "trend": 1076.641665, "fair_value": 1120.676386, "relative_strength": -26.211858, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.898154, "energy": 64.521468, "activity_lines": [ 954.206669, 1005.140006, 1091.640241, 1087.696238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 911.700012, "volume": 94673, "typical_volume": 257158.65, "trend": 1069.708333, "fair_value": 1122.486547, "relative_strength": -26.318023, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.121165, "energy": 68.673965, "activity_lines": [ 932.100004, 980.294552, 1071.440004, 1077.054842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }