{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac1858b5-16f5-4952-a974-264cee01e730", "symbol": "XMWD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.822, "architecture_energy": 66.944, "architecture_maturity": 51.005, "architecture_confidence": 81.665, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 56.94, "upward_expansion": 81.78, "deceleration": 63.75, "rotation_down": 26.72, "downward_expansion": 10.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 155.301334, 154.387636, 152.854952, 150.137268 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 159.419998, "trend_reference": 147.092167, "distance_from_trend": 0.08381, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 118.685803, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34321, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.227209, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118344, "excess_performance": 0.067109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08381, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03574, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34321, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013157, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032272, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017481, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118344, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.178435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11400, "relative_activity": 0.38893, "balance": 2.178435, "dry_up": 0.515555, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016386, "annualized_volatility": 0.129445, "from_high_reference": -0.000125, "from_low_reference": 0.228765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 147.092167, "fair_value_reference": 118.685803, "structural_low": 132.247299, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.010192, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002542, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.063785, "worst_return": -0.08743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029389, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.008187, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.081668, "worst_return": -0.095801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.061671, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003593, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.128333, "worst_return": -0.172377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.810402, "energy": 62.031831, "activity_lines": [ 153.590665, 153.246998, 150.222547, 147.86887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 153.199997, "volume": 11514, "typical_volume": 30156.05, "trend": 145.687166, "fair_value": 117.470739, "relative_strength": 2.093278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.017595, "energy": 59.137587, "activity_lines": [ 153.564331, 153.317998, 150.825832, 148.383322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 152.940002, "volume": 26217, "typical_volume": 29387.05, "trend": 146.090833, "fair_value": 117.854264, "relative_strength": 0.626265, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.836784, "energy": 56.786094, "activity_lines": [ 153.418999, 153.298271, 151.359356, 148.851247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.130005, "volume": 11315, "typical_volume": 29380.5, "trend": 146.525833, "fair_value": 118.246059, "relative_strength": -0.495407, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.734171, "energy": 51.323897, "activity_lines": [ 153.375001, 153.273909, 151.845642, 149.305387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 159.419998, "volume": 11400, "typical_volume": 29311.15, "trend": 147.092167, "fair_value": 118.685803, "relative_strength": 3.227209, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.82185, "energy": 66.943751, "activity_lines": [ 155.301334, 154.387636, 152.854952, 150.137268 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }