{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac222c87-73d4-4f5a-bf6d-453cdaa498d5", "symbol": "DIVS", "name": "GUINNESS ATKINSON DIVIDEND BUILDER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.189, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 96.316, "architecture_energy": 97.474, "architecture_maturity": 32.958, "architecture_confidence": 63.193, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 89.44, "upward_expansion": 99.92, "deceleration": 39.02, "rotation_down": 8.82, "downward_expansion": 21.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.145213, 33.635333, 33.067468, 32.662366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 35.085, "trend_reference": 32.277753, "distance_from_trend": 0.086972, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.204527, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243949, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.656496, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069353, "excess_performance": -0.056272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086972, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029107, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243949, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071283, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006565, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062709, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069353, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.058514, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8126, "relative_activity": 0.797703, "balance": 1.058514, "dry_up": 0.748374, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01517, "annualized_volatility": 0.135051, "from_high_reference": -0.000285, "from_low_reference": 0.18824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.277753, "fair_value_reference": 28.204527, "structural_low": 29.526875, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.011858, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.008595, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.052005, "worst_return": -0.09074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.028908, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.038952, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.069517, "worst_return": -0.077281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044256, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050116, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.108896, "worst_return": 0.025272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 2310, "typical_volume": 10524.2, "trend": 32.014733, "fair_value": 28.060465, "relative_strength": -1.426462, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.809808, "energy": 83.488629, "activity_lines": [ 33.237067, 32.995954, 32.591801, 32.328756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.2361, "volume": 9526, "typical_volume": 10237.7, "trend": 32.135416, "fair_value": 28.130154, "relative_strength": 0.263751, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.192142, "energy": 93.994372, "activity_lines": [ 33.6104, 33.253645, 32.797727, 32.47207 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.085, "volume": 8126, "typical_volume": 10186.75, "trend": 32.277753, "fair_value": 28.204527, "relative_strength": -0.656496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 96.316282, "energy": 97.473633, "activity_lines": [ 34.145213, 33.635333, 33.067468, 32.662366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }