{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac28c0be-5eac-46e8-8266-c6548f83afd8", "symbol": "002125", "name": "Xiangtan Electrochemical Scientific Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.513, "architecture_energy": 64.619, "architecture_maturity": 15.474, "architecture_confidence": 79.339, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.78, "rotation_up": 9.44, "upward_expansion": 13.87, "deceleration": 38.1, "rotation_down": 69.8, "downward_expansion": 87.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.149333, 12.9832, 13.910487, 14.06123 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.54, "trend_reference": 14.224499, "distance_from_trend": -0.118422, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.609761, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080126, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.155973, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.104925, "excess_performance": -0.112325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118422, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010169, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.080126, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252993, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054032, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104925, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.534127, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94619843, "relative_activity": 0.82101, "balance": 2.534127, "dry_up": 0.939499, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148696, "annualized_volatility": 0.627068, "from_high_reference": -0.39885, "from_low_reference": 0.141037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.224499, "fair_value_reference": 11.609761, "structural_low": 10.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.013011, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.000518, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.522097, "worst_return": -0.130028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.077003, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.019555, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.364269, "worst_return": -0.157961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.134812, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025787, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.768578, "worst_return": -0.243549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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119221898.05, "trend": 14.361498, "fair_value": 11.606824, "relative_strength": -19.855508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.691377, "energy": 67.825369, "activity_lines": [ 12.04, 13.713573, 14.255486, 14.30381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.34, "volume": 97435265, "typical_volume": 116929088.4, "trend": 14.278499, "fair_value": 11.606534, "relative_strength": -12.535244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.614342, "energy": 72.354791, "activity_lines": [ 12.005333, 13.309297, 14.066891, 14.173391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.54, "volume": 94619843, "typical_volume": 115248043.15, "trend": 14.224499, "fair_value": 11.609761, "relative_strength": -15.155973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.512842, "energy": 64.619231, "activity_lines": [ 12.149333, 12.9832, 13.910487, 14.06123 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }