{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac2ac51e-a23e-43bb-985e-d497528023c3", "symbol": "SPELE", "name": "UBS S&P 500 ESG Elite UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.833, "architecture_energy": 53.47, "architecture_maturity": 66.776, "architecture_confidence": 79.483, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.64, "rotation_up": 41.86, "upward_expansion": 69.92, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.94, "downward_expansion": 22.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.173, 21.245909, 20.796586, 20.097366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.674999, "trend_reference": 19.314633, "distance_from_trend": 0.122206, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.656622, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.384398, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.436183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.199502, "excess_performance": 0.02861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.122206, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067697, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.384398, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051356, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014362, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.199502, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.692358, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22614, "relative_activity": 0.303941, "balance": 1.692358, "dry_up": 1.289749, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024587, "annualized_volatility": 0.162758, "from_high_reference": -0.005962, "from_low_reference": 0.360128 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.314633, "fair_value_reference": 15.656622, "structural_low": 16.382, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007481, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023237, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.094554, "worst_return": -0.043456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.087871, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.05272, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.178584, "worst_return": -0.031471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.1206, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.068396, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.238024, "worst_return": 0.0476, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.258507, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.057073, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.399326, "worst_return": 0.117688, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000699, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012181, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002229, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033474, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.103465, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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21.049999, "volume": 100871, "typical_volume": 65816.2, "trend": 18.09, "fair_value": 15.016782, "relative_strength": 6.628284, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.643097, "energy": 97.54176, "activity_lines": [ 20.295466, 19.512873, 18.693571, 18.434705 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 20.834999, "volume": 10259, "typical_volume": 66327.8, "trend": 18.214767, "fair_value": 15.07807, "relative_strength": 5.612661, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.193446, "energy": 92.737353, "activity_lines": [ 20.585399, 19.884982, 18.93079, 18.611802 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 21.18, "volume": 5330, "typical_volume": 66197.25, "trend": 18.340767, "fair_value": 15.14157, "relative_strength": 3.877969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.987977, "energy": 93.469514, "activity_lines": [ 20.857066, 20.241218, 19.188824, 18.803107 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 21.665001, "volume": 3649, "typical_volume": 66352.3, "trend": 18.498467, "fair_value": 15.208179, "relative_strength": 3.416691, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.853782, "energy": 95.188072, "activity_lines": [ 21.197333, 20.608873, 19.4788, 19.017574 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 21.635, "volume": 10049, "typical_volume": 64347.75, "trend": 18.643433, "fair_value": 15.274596, "relative_strength": 6.311574, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.418944, "energy": 92.445743, "activity_lines": [ 21.406333, 20.898036, 19.750571, 19.219931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.605, "volume": 3833, "typical_volume": 62898.75, "trend": 18.782, "fair_value": 15.34082, "relative_strength": 3.011846, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.482205, "energy": 90.409155, "activity_lines": [ 21.517, 21.1234, 20.00251, 19.411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.32, "volume": 30443, "typical_volume": 63844.65, "trend": 18.900467, "fair_value": 15.405218, "relative_strength": 2.016721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.383869, "energy": 82.791411, "activity_lines": [ 21.495667, 21.240745, 20.210243, 19.574742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.825001, "volume": 42869, "typical_volume": 63439.3, "trend": 19.003767, "fair_value": 15.466442, "relative_strength": 1.011741, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.132943, "energy": 65.705487, "activity_lines": [ 21.277, 21.222927, 20.355119, 19.698905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.01, "volume": 50106, "typical_volume": 63646.15, "trend": 19.1069, "fair_value": 15.528853, "relative_strength": 2.017756, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.528988, "energy": 56.733201, "activity_lines": [ 21.143667, 21.219818, 20.503972, 19.82834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.805, "volume": 268254, "typical_volume": 75773.85, "trend": 19.2032, "fair_value": 15.589949, "relative_strength": 0.34626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.619789, "energy": 45.886933, "activity_lines": [ 20.985667, 21.158273, 20.617433, 19.937895 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.674999, "volume": 22614, "typical_volume": 74402.65, "trend": 19.314633, "fair_value": 15.656622, "relative_strength": 1.436183, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.832697, "energy": 53.469544, "activity_lines": [ 21.173, 21.245909, 20.796586, 20.097366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }