{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac2b60e7-5689-412e-97a5-4d90ad2e32f5", "symbol": "AERI3", "name": "Aeris Ind\u00fastria e Com\u00e9rcio de Equipamentos para Gera\u00e7\u00e3o de Energia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.65, "architecture_energy": 46.852, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.056, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.68, "rotation_up": 27.51, "upward_expansion": 19.66, "deceleration": 64.3, "rotation_down": 46.36, "downward_expansion": 72.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.153333, 2.134364, 2.239857, 2.350194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.29, "trend_reference": 2.533, "distance_from_trend": -0.095934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.434551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.691979, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.012854, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.254072, "excess_performance": -0.197023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095934, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16522, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.691979, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037697, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101841, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254072, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.066485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244600, "relative_activity": 1.289268, "balance": 1.066485, "dry_up": 0.779702, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056097, "annualized_volatility": 0.375687, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.145 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.533, "fair_value_reference": 7.434551, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.060891, "positive_rate": 0.295455, "directional_follow_through": 0.659091, "median_excess_return": -0.078654, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 0.54827, "worst_return": -0.373464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.162162, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.166047, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.314516, "worst_return": -0.428125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.32266, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.39158, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.101351, "worst_return": -0.593407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.54375, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.573002, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.542857, "worst_return": -0.552198, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016807, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.422078, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.417355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015699, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177419, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 2.061333, 2.150364, 2.303, 2.436086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.04, "volume": 90900, "typical_volume": 190120.0, "trend": 2.602667, "fair_value": 7.713782, "relative_strength": -41.414286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.494916, "energy": 85.384683, "activity_lines": [ 2.044667, 2.117091, 2.267286, 2.397204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.15, "volume": 134900, "typical_volume": 189660.0, "trend": 2.566, "fair_value": 7.569872, "relative_strength": -38.389093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.431024, "energy": 76.335776, "activity_lines": [ 2.078, 2.110727, 2.245238, 2.368 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.29, "volume": 244600, "typical_volume": 189720.0, "trend": 2.533, "fair_value": 7.434551, "relative_strength": -31.012854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.650213, "energy": 46.852419, "activity_lines": [ 2.153333, 2.134364, 2.239857, 2.350194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }