{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac3002e8-94e5-464a-a970-0d1cd93edf35", "symbol": "CAPS", "name": "Capstone Holding Corp. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.204, "architecture_energy": 58.434, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.728, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.99, "rotation_up": 29.0, "upward_expansion": 12.37, "deceleration": 43.69, "rotation_down": 48.53, "downward_expansion": 85.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.25892, 0.261155, 0.296773, 0.359933 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.282, "trend_reference": 0.44377, "distance_from_trend": -0.364536, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.973445, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.905161, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -65.391498, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.486339, "excess_performance": -0.673792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.364536, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.905161, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009035, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.653915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061515, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.486339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.406908, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 713268, "relative_activity": 0.053611, "balance": 11.406908, "dry_up": 0.104855, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.221195, "annualized_volatility": 0.878543, "from_high_reference": -0.863768, "from_low_reference": 0.236842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.44377, "fair_value_reference": 2.973445, "structural_low": 0.228, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.046358, "positive_rate": 0.219512, "directional_follow_through": 0.536585, "median_excess_return": -0.06472, "regime_survival": 0.95122, "best_return": 0.328, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.298137, "positive_rate": 0.076923, "directional_follow_through": 0.923077, "median_excess_return": -0.363058, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 1.028986, "worst_return": -0.625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.528667, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.55181, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.590909, "worst_return": -0.74, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.619565, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.868828, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.681818, "worst_return": -0.816, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-07-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-07-23", "end": "2021-08-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-08-27", "end": "2022-01-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.215909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-01-14", "end": "2022-02-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.590909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-03-04", "end": "2022-03-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-04-01", "end": "2022-04-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-04-15", "end": "2022-07-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-07-08", "end": "2022-08-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-08-26", "end": "2022-08-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.342105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.881513, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.5, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 72.15, "trend": 27.066667, "fair_value": 29.729744, "relative_strength": -80.073947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.458623, "energy": 66.457414, "activity_lines": [ 7.5, 7.809091, 15.164286, 20.730108 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 7.5, "volume": 1, 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72.630866, "activity_lines": [ 0.24878, 0.259524, 0.305362, 0.371204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.282, "volume": 713268, "typical_volume": 13304610.85, "trend": 0.44377, "fair_value": 2.973445, "relative_strength": -65.391498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.203578, "energy": 58.434231, "activity_lines": [ 0.25892, 0.261155, 0.296773, 0.359933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }