{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac387a22-1d30-4d4d-b053-c596f57adbb1", "symbol": "SILLYMONKS", "name": "Silly Monks Entertainment Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.13, "architecture_energy": 29.936, "architecture_maturity": 19.428, "architecture_confidence": 91.0, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.78, "rotation_up": 16.53, "upward_expansion": 3.07, "deceleration": 47.05, "rotation_down": 54.32, "downward_expansion": 78.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.926, 16.138909, 16.38781, 16.559333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.35, "trend_reference": 17.082, "distance_from_trend": -0.042852, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.613654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121613, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.540286, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.107045, "excess_performance": -0.063336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042852, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106496, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121613, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03427, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085403, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107045, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.974922, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 192117, "relative_activity": 2.87129, "balance": 0.974922, "dry_up": 1.171442, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116914, "annualized_volatility": 0.327163, "from_high_reference": -0.425308, "from_low_reference": 0.119097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.082, "fair_value_reference": 18.613654, "structural_low": 14.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007543, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.003506, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.407323, "worst_return": -0.210878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.093822, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.028487, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.691244, "worst_return": -0.184128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.11031, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.027284, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.481098, "worst_return": -0.255907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.132379, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.187839, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.446243, "worst_return": -0.165899, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00163, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150589, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03356, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.109013, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.101266, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01318, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151694, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101194, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033116, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.549999, "volume": 11198, "typical_volume": 79116.3, "trend": 18.645, "fair_value": 22.671342, "relative_strength": -28.790062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.205008, "energy": 20.63077, "activity_lines": [ 18.026667, 17.249091, 17.095952, 17.519678 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 91490, "typical_volume": 82716.35, "trend": 18.333333, "fair_value": 22.591776, "relative_strength": -29.218736, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.012036, "energy": 13.807993, "activity_lines": [ 17.783333, 17.36, 17.084048, 17.432903 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 19.700001, "volume": 135954, "typical_volume": 88418.65, "trend": 18.173334, "fair_value": 22.553637, "relative_strength": -19.631951, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.667313, "energy": 24.68479, "activity_lines": [ 18.333333, 17.886364, 17.3, 17.521075 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 20.6, "volume": 245872, "typical_volume": 98166.75, "trend": 18.01, 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"volume": 41439, "typical_volume": 59848.65, "trend": 17.725667, "fair_value": 18.672692, "relative_strength": -9.607081, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.349712, "energy": 23.619012, "activity_lines": [ 16.47, 16.651273, 16.643905, 16.966043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.63, "volume": 53550, "typical_volume": 59469.3, "trend": 17.493, "fair_value": 18.662628, "relative_strength": -12.034395, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.437887, "energy": 37.886505, "activity_lines": [ 16.081334, 16.459637, 16.547857, 16.830839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.79, "volume": 19895, "typical_volume": 58458.9, "trend": 17.305667, "fair_value": 18.643013, "relative_strength": -8.837618, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.771538, "energy": 41.421948, "activity_lines": [ 15.912, 16.322, 16.476381, 16.720968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.62, "volume": 47961, "typical_volume": 58614.8, "trend": 17.169667, "fair_value": 18.624872, "relative_strength": -12.007752, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.6378, "energy": 43.488558, "activity_lines": [ 15.760667, 16.164364, 16.396429, 16.612215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.35, "volume": 192117, "typical_volume": 66909.65, "trend": 17.082, "fair_value": 18.613654, "relative_strength": -8.540286, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.129841, "energy": 29.93584, "activity_lines": [ 15.926, 16.138909, 16.38781, 16.559333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }