{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac3b0cdf-3a6c-49ea-bdee-80bdde515866", "symbol": "UNCA", "name": "First Trust US Equity Income UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.649, "architecture_energy": 78.457, "architecture_maturity": 39.919, "architecture_confidence": 57.261, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 84.14, "upward_expansion": 93.36, "deceleration": 45.94, "rotation_down": 10.14, "downward_expansion": 15.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.304667, 42.701364, 41.473762, 40.657721 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 43.549999, "trend_reference": 39.627167, "distance_from_trend": 0.098994, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.193686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237438, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.39439, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.127362, "excess_performance": -0.04353, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098994, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063655, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097278, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034803, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127362, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.220575, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12313, "relative_activity": 0.767356, "balance": 0.220575, "dry_up": 0.32357, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017425, "annualized_volatility": 0.109694, "from_high_reference": -0.017928, "from_low_reference": 0.314915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.627167, "fair_value_reference": 35.193686, "structural_low": 37.564999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.001578, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.008553, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.098527, "worst_return": -0.093258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.020806, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.012937, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.117139, "worst_return": -0.137322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.058606, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.034654, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.10157, "worst_return": -0.043878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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97.343938, "activity_lines": [ 42.379, 41.585364, 40.499786, 39.837495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.450001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15428.7, "trend": 39.127, "fair_value": 35.028173, "relative_strength": 3.042778, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.891604, "energy": 95.47706, "activity_lines": [ 42.872667, 42.051273, 40.853976, 40.133183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.095001, "volume": 2254, "typical_volume": 15541.4, "trend": 39.387667, "fair_value": 35.110385, "relative_strength": 1.49287, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.315869, "energy": 86.263538, "activity_lines": [ 43.049001, 42.369091, 41.152357, 40.389183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.549999, "volume": 12313, "typical_volume": 16046.0, "trend": 39.627167, "fair_value": 35.193686, "relative_strength": -0.39439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.649444, "energy": 78.456934, "activity_lines": [ 43.304667, 42.701364, 41.473762, 40.657721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }