{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac3c3d4b-7ba1-4754-aa2d-26c9fd39b7e0", "symbol": "LPX", "name": "Louisiana-Pacific Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.759, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.264, "architecture_energy": 12.052, "architecture_maturity": 23.65, "architecture_confidence": 64.922, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.54, "rotation_up": 19.26, "upward_expansion": 15.74, "deceleration": 56.72, "rotation_down": 44.76, "downward_expansion": 63.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.122, 75.801091, 75.084406, 75.455226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 78.51, "trend_reference": 77.683885, "distance_from_trend": 0.010634, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 83.127035, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055542, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.660435, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.18419, "excess_performance": -0.309815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010634, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024342, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055542, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035277, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075718, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.18419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.648795, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8551879, "relative_activity": 1.530376, "balance": 1.648795, "dry_up": 1.135771, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086434, "annualized_volatility": 0.420005, "from_high_reference": -0.225877, "from_low_reference": 0.187387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.683885, "fair_value_reference": 83.127035, "structural_low": 66.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.049257, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.019451, "regime_survival": 0.421053, "best_return": 0.275874, "worst_return": -0.158885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.023992, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006267, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.272684, "worst_return": -0.171763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021654, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.080862, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.232386, "worst_return": -0.152408, 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"fair_value": 82.94809, "relative_strength": -16.476734, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.235778, "energy": 14.926861, "activity_lines": [ 75.253333, 75.788727, 74.807732, 75.814795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.43, "volume": 5566198, "typical_volume": 5337017.55, "trend": 78.111982, "fair_value": 83.011563, "relative_strength": -19.035496, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.141604, "energy": 24.543088, "activity_lines": [ 73.842667, 75.259636, 74.64923, 75.429547 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.51, "volume": 8551879, "typical_volume": 5588088.35, "trend": 77.683885, "fair_value": 83.127035, "relative_strength": -14.660435, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.263964, "energy": 12.051944, "activity_lines": [ 75.122, 75.801091, 75.084406, 75.455226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }