{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac3d0bcc-3c30-4c52-9860-55fa22982513", "symbol": "600657", "name": "Cinda Real Estate Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.843, "architecture_energy": 39.027, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.505, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.19, "rotation_up": 26.69, "upward_expansion": 17.7, "deceleration": 66.88, "rotation_down": 41.01, "downward_expansion": 67.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.497333, 2.477636, 2.618238, 2.759011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.57, "trend_reference": 2.962333, "distance_from_trend": -0.132441, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.772885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.318824, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.916978, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.252907, "excess_performance": -0.209703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132441, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116249, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.318824, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116055, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.22917, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.252907, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.691451, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102212313, "relative_activity": 1.113318, "balance": 0.691451, "dry_up": 1.252437, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082909, "annualized_volatility": 0.300151, "from_high_reference": -0.421171, "from_low_reference": 0.147321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.962333, "fair_value_reference": 3.772885, "structural_low": 2.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.02097, "positive_rate": 0.342105, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.012536, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.642405, "worst_return": -0.164912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.065217, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.069555, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.701439, "worst_return": -0.204545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.061125, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.10287, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.387097, "worst_return": -0.270833, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": -66.94832, "energy": 81.0929, "activity_lines": [ 2.400667, 2.514909, 2.706476, 2.86028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.36, "volume": 113867508, "typical_volume": 91634006.45, "trend": 3.024, "fair_value": 3.795128, "relative_strength": -28.269647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.7788, "energy": 69.403627, "activity_lines": [ 2.380667, 2.468909, 2.659524, 2.81486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.58, "volume": 98683800, "typical_volume": 92621880.75, "trend": 2.991667, "fair_value": 3.785128, "relative_strength": -21.204331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.204051, "energy": 53.062151, "activity_lines": [ 2.447333, 2.472182, 2.637762, 2.786215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.57, "volume": 102212313, "typical_volume": 91808762.55, "trend": 2.962333, "fair_value": 3.772885, "relative_strength": -22.916978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.842765, "energy": 39.02716, "activity_lines": [ 2.497333, 2.477636, 2.618238, 2.759011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }