{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac3f4ba1-e4de-481c-bbba-b3d4495cb4ac", "symbol": "CCRE", "name": "CIBC Core Fixed Income Pool ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.131, "architecture_energy": 20.724, "architecture_maturity": 20.495, "architecture_confidence": 78.685, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.82, "rotation_up": 17.43, "upward_expansion": 51.2, "deceleration": 92.46, "rotation_down": 40.74, "downward_expansion": 21.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.687198, 17.713427, 17.704815, 17.691634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.700001, "trend_reference": 17.684383, "distance_from_trend": 0.000883, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.80057, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.797508, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001223, "excess_performance": -0.119199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000883, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002943, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053536, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107975, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003729, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001223, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.339768, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30600, "relative_activity": 0.968661, "balance": 5.339768, "dry_up": 0.523109, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003668, "annualized_volatility": 0.030566, "from_high_reference": -0.008165, "from_low_reference": 0.028751 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.684383, "fair_value_reference": 16.80057, "structural_low": 17.475067, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004461, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.013767, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.011386, "worst_return": -0.019584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000615, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0023, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.030207, "worst_return": -0.008789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.0219, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000817, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03084, "worst_return": 0.012961, 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0.008999, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008904, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007199, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.023353, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 17.722889, "volume": 15200, "typical_volume": 30540.0, "trend": 17.669235, "fair_value": 16.739965, "relative_strength": -9.613334, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.219662, "energy": 55.732717, "activity_lines": [ 17.758274, 17.738707, 17.69918, 17.688974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.712925, "volume": 8400, "typical_volume": 30355.0, "trend": 17.675453, "fair_value": 16.754964, "relative_strength": -9.171482, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.095959, "energy": 31.104288, "activity_lines": [ 17.740328, 17.738827, 17.702799, 17.691793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.673075, "volume": 21200, "typical_volume": 31275.0, "trend": 17.678387, "fair_value": 16.769835, "relative_strength": -9.254426, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.151652, "energy": 15.947746, "activity_lines": [ 17.713257, 17.731082, 17.703232, 17.691639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.66, "volume": 5900, "typical_volume": 31185.0, "trend": 17.681699, "fair_value": 16.785244, "relative_strength": -8.518506, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.057704, "energy": 17.807701, "activity_lines": [ 17.689306, 17.719079, 17.702418, 17.690453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 30600, "typical_volume": 31590.0, "trend": 17.684383, "fair_value": 16.80057, "relative_strength": -10.797508, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.130986, "energy": 20.724169, "activity_lines": [ 17.687198, 17.713427, 17.704815, 17.691634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }