{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ac43da49-8598-4402-a91b-9eb219437cdb",
    "symbol": "ONCOZ",
    "name": "OncoZenge AB (publ)",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 87.751,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 15.072,
    "architecture_energy": 14.638,
    "architecture_maturity": 37.737,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.146,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.58,
        "rotation_up": 17.67,
        "upward_expansion": 45.82,
        "deceleration": 92.27,
        "rotation_down": 37.01,
        "downward_expansion": 25.49
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        6.446667,
        6.712364,
        6.698381,
        6.516452
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 6.21,
    "trend_reference": 6.266667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.009043,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5.21391,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191045,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.891884,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.112903,
    "excess_performance": 0.051409,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009043,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046654,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.191045,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.063118,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.108919,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.065666,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.112903,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.458672,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 102738,
      "relative_activity": 0.8467,
      "balance": 0.458672,
      "dry_up": 0.683464,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.176143,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.539189,
      "from_high_reference": -0.395914,
      "from_low_reference": 0.375415
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.266667,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.21391,
      "structural_low": 5.02,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.030255,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.05764,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.173835,
        "worst_return": -0.167488,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.103943,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016668,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.46651,
        "worst_return": 0.027419,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.098396,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.011231,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.259694,
        "worst_return": -0.062903,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.311398,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.202434,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 0.311398,
        "worst_return": 0.311398,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.407627,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.112808,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.5625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.037383,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.152475,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.22619,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.300373,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.12766,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.083871,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.06705,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.080645,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.013699,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.162088,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.094752,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 332427.65,
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      },
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        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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        "direction": 12.873418,
        "energy": 7.23776,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.881333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 101159.65,
        "trend": 5.862333,
        "fair_value": 5.095032,
        "relative_strength": -4.325279,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 27.001483,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.06,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 102652.0,
        "trend": 5.894667,
        "fair_value": 5.085417,
        "relative_strength": -1.811143,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.573403,
        "energy": 42.299649,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 113334.3,
        "trend": 5.948,
        "fair_value": 5.094455,
        "relative_strength": 6.242179,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 64.974214,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 133923.3,
        "trend": 5.987333,
        "fair_value": 5.093045,
        "relative_strength": -6.271659,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 54.779007,
        "energy": 54.444635,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 128740.05,
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        "fair_value": 5.095417,
        "relative_strength": -6.479,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 46.439315,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 6.081333,
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        "relative_strength": 17.632888,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "direction": 64.843914,
        "energy": 51.040588,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 30841,
        "typical_volume": 112459.9,
        "trend": 6.210333,
        "fair_value": 5.117981,
        "relative_strength": 9.479652,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.059861,
        "energy": 60.301492,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.360667,
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          6.594143,
          6.382645
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 7.22,
        "volume": 46431,
        "typical_volume": 110118.65,
        "trend": 6.25,
        "fair_value": 5.12484,
        "relative_strength": 3.13166,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.488899,
        "energy": 61.183807,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.388667,
          7.139455,
          6.680619,
          6.447785
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 6.59,
        "volume": 122160,
        "typical_volume": 115343.45,
        "trend": 6.250667,
        "fair_value": 5.131699,
        "relative_strength": -3.033692,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.814836,
        "energy": 33.50672,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.152,
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          6.700381,
          6.46972
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 6.1,
        "volume": 59138,
        "typical_volume": 115908.9,
        "trend": 6.248333,
        "fair_value": 5.147115,
        "relative_strength": -8.760464,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.297671,
        "energy": 13.916783,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.734,
          6.925091,
          6.67,
          6.46
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 6.86,
        "volume": 120663,
        "typical_volume": 118454.55,
        "trend": 6.258667,
        "fair_value": 5.167051,
        "relative_strength": 1.252499,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.629241,
        "energy": 17.78252,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.692,
          6.911455,
          6.712286,
          6.499462
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.57,
        "volume": 49185,
        "typical_volume": 118431.4,
        "trend": 6.258,
        "fair_value": 5.190064,
        "relative_strength": -4.116258,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.376145,
        "energy": 18.369839,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.599333,
          6.838182,
          6.724524,
          6.519548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.21,
        "volume": 102738,
        "typical_volume": 121339.3,
        "trend": 6.266667,
        "fair_value": 5.21391,
        "relative_strength": -10.891884,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 15.072259,
        "energy": 14.637514,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.446667,
          6.712364,
          6.698381,
          6.516452
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}