{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac4c848a-dac1-4c25-be92-ca1b3d2532db", "symbol": "AMTM", "name": "Amentum Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.108, "architecture_energy": 18.901, "architecture_maturity": 83.966, "architecture_confidence": 84.679, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.33, "rotation_up": 31.23, "upward_expansion": 22.35, "deceleration": 44.11, "rotation_down": 26.79, "downward_expansion": 61.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.844667, 22.171273, 22.708571, 24.007118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.77, "trend_reference": 26.409333, "distance_from_trend": -0.062074, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.543469, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00923, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.649077, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.339995, "excess_performance": -0.46562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062074, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069307, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00923, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012157, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.339995, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.640031, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7646204, "relative_activity": 0.833949, "balance": 0.640031, "dry_up": 0.913816, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080611, "annualized_volatility": 0.413395, "from_high_reference": -0.350039, "from_low_reference": 0.250871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.409333, "fair_value_reference": 24.543469, "structural_low": 19.8022, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.056415, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.056119, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.045245, "worst_return": -0.067585, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -62.258334, "energy": 50.653995, "activity_lines": [ 21.415333, 21.594727, 22.779238, 24.440366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.2, "volume": 8544319, "typical_volume": 9296686.05, "trend": 26.704667, "fair_value": 24.541134, "relative_strength": -22.055933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.467713, "energy": 38.440954, "activity_lines": [ 21.766667, 21.64, 22.607952, 24.131935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.77, "volume": 7646204, "typical_volume": 9168671.95, "trend": 26.409333, "fair_value": 24.543469, "relative_strength": -15.649077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.108292, "energy": 18.901158, "activity_lines": [ 22.844667, 22.171273, 22.708571, 24.007118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }