{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac4ce2eb-27f4-4c8c-b730-e09d159de247", "symbol": "SMHB", "name": "UBS AG London Branch", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.955, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.409, "architecture_energy": 33.885, "architecture_maturity": 47.606, "architecture_confidence": 61.234, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.02, "rotation_up": 48.19, "upward_expansion": 77.09, "deceleration": 64.94, "rotation_down": 22.39, "downward_expansion": 3.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.06388, 4.05562, 3.965511, 3.884201 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.07, "trend_reference": 3.834352, "distance_from_trend": 0.061457, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.869742, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05175, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.420647, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006371, "excess_performance": -0.119254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061457, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039721, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022771, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016157, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006371, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.01722, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30962, "relative_activity": 0.320726, "balance": 1.01722, "dry_up": 1.113456, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064025, "annualized_volatility": 0.297784, "from_high_reference": -0.064368, "from_low_reference": 0.350496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.834352, "fair_value_reference": 3.869742, "structural_low": 3.229198, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.047777, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.1875, "median_excess_return": -0.068672, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.100237, "worst_return": -0.192519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017953, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.059589, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.036089, "worst_return": -0.089569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.056604, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.179182, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064548, "worst_return": -0.155524, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.975043, "energy": 77.701196, "activity_lines": [ 4.15319, 4.027616, 3.902667, 3.844924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.04, "volume": 104246, "typical_volume": 102131.6, "trend": 3.816569, "fair_value": 3.869805, "relative_strength": -0.996816, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.405799, "energy": 69.027916, "activity_lines": [ 4.142589, 4.046332, 3.927585, 3.860292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.9439, "volume": 104853, "typical_volume": 100561.1, "trend": 3.826741, "fair_value": 3.869043, "relative_strength": -4.233085, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.503069, "energy": 41.190691, "activity_lines": [ 4.081333, 4.041098, 3.941793, 3.868507 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.07, "volume": 30962, "typical_volume": 96537.3, "trend": 3.834352, "fair_value": 3.869742, "relative_strength": -4.420647, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.409285, "energy": 33.885003, "activity_lines": [ 4.06388, 4.05562, 3.965511, 3.884201 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }