{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac4eef45-04e3-4171-83e4-bebc9843427b", "symbol": "ABX", "name": "Advanced Blockchain AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.287, "architecture_energy": 46.607, "architecture_maturity": 44.478, "architecture_confidence": 93.864, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.67, "rotation_up": 24.48, "upward_expansion": 6.92, "deceleration": 51.46, "rotation_down": 49.21, "downward_expansion": 77.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.272533, 1.281309, 1.468276, 1.555189 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.306, "trend_reference": 1.700333, "distance_from_trend": -0.231915, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.281667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.602031, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.656293, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.326804, "excess_performance": -0.391444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231915, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.602031, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136509, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.456563, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169834, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.326804, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.851992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4862, "relative_activity": 0.334955, "balance": 0.851992, "dry_up": 1.028408, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170691, "annualized_volatility": 0.681079, "from_high_reference": -0.647027, "from_low_reference": 0.306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.700333, "fair_value_reference": 3.281667, "structural_low": 1.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.031915, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.027305, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.436667, "worst_return": -0.647059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011764, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008676, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.286957, "worst_return": -0.768161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.042071, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.098966, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.312997, "worst_return": -0.761206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.21028, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036965, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.26383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160458, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.119741, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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3.312231, "relative_strength": -51.077862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.65512, "energy": 84.625426, "activity_lines": [ 1.208, 1.376255, 1.562543, 1.652299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.246, "volume": 10228, "typical_volume": 16087.35, "trend": 1.791133, "fair_value": 3.302269, "relative_strength": -47.031026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.771124, "energy": 82.166741, "activity_lines": [ 1.203067, 1.324164, 1.525505, 1.614002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.32, "volume": 5982, "typical_volume": 16158.25, "trend": 1.746467, "fair_value": 3.292782, "relative_strength": -44.332563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.065135, "energy": 64.92689, "activity_lines": [ 1.240133, 1.297418, 1.496914, 1.583606 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.306, "volume": 4862, "typical_volume": 14515.4, "trend": 1.700333, "fair_value": 3.281667, "relative_strength": -45.656293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.28658, "energy": 46.606884, "activity_lines": [ 1.272533, 1.281309, 1.468276, 1.555189 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }