{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac572491-c20a-4f90-9ab8-050b459c9ca1", "symbol": "603668", "name": "Fujian Tianma Science and Technology Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.664, "architecture_energy": 70.224, "architecture_maturity": 53.46, "architecture_confidence": 88.919, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.52, "rotation_up": 12.86, "upward_expansion": 14.77, "deceleration": 39.2, "rotation_down": 69.68, "downward_expansion": 88.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.786667, 11.197455, 11.699667, 12.214645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.58, "trend_reference": 13.114333, "distance_from_trend": -0.193249, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.449554, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213357, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.676727, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.313878, "excess_performance": -0.270674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098341, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213357, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207737, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236767, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.313878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.219594, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41586086, "relative_activity": 1.008341, "balance": 0.219594, "dry_up": 0.9567, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096336, "annualized_volatility": 0.456017, "from_high_reference": -0.461303, "from_low_reference": 0.052736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.114333, "fair_value_reference": 13.449554, "structural_low": 10.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.004259, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.000169, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.146057, "worst_return": -0.164201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005834, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027782, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.21123, "worst_return": -0.066784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.011637, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.023458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.213904, "worst_return": -0.052821, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -22.855389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.049572, "energy": 51.30472, "activity_lines": [ 11.292, 11.458909, 11.998524, 12.555699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.95, "volume": 31345366, "typical_volume": 41767014.8, "trend": 13.317, "fair_value": 13.467944, "relative_strength": -19.269562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.909304, "energy": 61.584511, "activity_lines": [ 11.055333, 11.348909, 11.860286, 12.391226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.58, "volume": 41586086, "typical_volume": 41242104.25, "trend": 13.114333, "fair_value": 13.449554, "relative_strength": -23.676727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.664324, "energy": 70.223861, "activity_lines": [ 10.786667, 11.197455, 11.699667, 12.214645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }