{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac57c948-6de8-4065-9568-4249b2fd36d5", "symbol": "002626", "name": "Xiamen Kingdomway Group Company", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.865, "architecture_energy": 29.568, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.525, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.11, "rotation_up": 27.37, "upward_expansion": 16.49, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 31.96, "downward_expansion": 64.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.29, 14.11186, 14.51946, 15.314949 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.96, "trend_reference": 16.512515, "distance_from_trend": -0.094021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.245744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079143, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.513619, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.21346, "excess_performance": -0.220859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097797, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079143, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138141, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.074911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25085799, "relative_activity": 1.112398, "balance": 1.074911, "dry_up": 1.194146, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073255, "annualized_volatility": 0.369931, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.138508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.512515, "fair_value_reference": 16.245744, "structural_low": 13.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.007733, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01044, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.197826, "worst_return": -0.288695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.064799, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.054857, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.329508, "worst_return": -0.245383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091565, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042786, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.212861, "worst_return": -0.332708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.902771, "energy": 52.655847, "activity_lines": [ 14.087333, 14.172179, 14.933586, 15.847285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.22, "volume": 30623436, "typical_volume": 24400919.15, "trend": 16.860848, "fair_value": 16.291293, "relative_strength": -27.686307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.730526, "energy": 55.099137, "activity_lines": [ 13.855333, 13.948007, 14.685893, 15.600219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.15, "volume": 20005008, "typical_volume": 23794771.05, "trend": 16.670848, "fair_value": 16.265614, "relative_strength": -20.658621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.690455, "energy": 41.435143, "activity_lines": [ 13.970667, 13.944464, 14.552676, 15.425326 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.96, "volume": 25085799, "typical_volume": 22551098.25, "trend": 16.512515, "fair_value": 16.245744, "relative_strength": -19.513619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.864949, "energy": 29.567547, "activity_lines": [ 14.29, 14.11186, 14.51946, 15.314949 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }