{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac593a38-137b-4160-bccf-28794d555517", "symbol": "IUSV", "name": "ISHARES CORE S&P U.S. VALUE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.173, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.893, "architecture_energy": 78.224, "architecture_maturity": 35.246, "architecture_confidence": 77.086, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 73.65, "upward_expansion": 93.9, "deceleration": 43.79, "rotation_down": 19.06, "downward_expansion": 15.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 112.863333, 112.037799, 110.595157, 109.034439 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 114.29, "trend_reference": 107.346794, "distance_from_trend": 0.06468, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 91.768086, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245422, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.809002, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.07015, "excess_performance": -0.117304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06468, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031951, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245422, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024404, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055968, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07015, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.623696, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2465895, "relative_activity": 0.683979, "balance": 2.623696, "dry_up": 0.748142, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016652, "annualized_volatility": 0.091124, "from_high_reference": -0.003488, "from_low_reference": 0.213874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.346794, "fair_value_reference": 91.768086, "structural_low": 99.704913, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.009167, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": 0.00045, "regime_survival": 0.72973, "best_return": 0.035865, "worst_return": -0.06686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.024874, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.01636, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.08022, "worst_return": -0.043371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.072399, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.022077, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.109294, "worst_return": -0.028536, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.801106, "energy": 77.795366, "activity_lines": [ 111.816667, 111.122447, 109.556079, 108.203291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 112.29, "volume": 2362273, "typical_volume": 3886252.2, "trend": 107.01769, "fair_value": 91.514667, "relative_strength": -0.761175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.206889, "energy": 72.245277, "activity_lines": [ 112.088667, 111.42, 110.00574, 108.565257 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 114.29, "volume": 2465895, "typical_volume": 3605218.5, "trend": 107.346794, "fair_value": 91.768086, "relative_strength": -3.809002, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.89349, "energy": 78.224273, "activity_lines": [ 112.863333, 112.037799, 110.595157, 109.034439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }