{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ac5a458d-69f2-4a75-b32d-4b9b9ffb233f",
    "symbol": "DBEM",
    "name": "DBX ETF TRUST XTRACKERS MSCI EMRG MKT HEDGED EQUITY ET",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 81.558,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 11.658,
    "architecture_energy": 14.336,
    "architecture_maturity": 59.583,
    "architecture_confidence": 89.407,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 62.02,
        "rotation_up": 17.85,
        "upward_expansion": 44.64,
        "deceleration": 87.86,
        "rotation_down": 36.3,
        "downward_expansion": 27.31
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        38.19726,
        38.849351,
        38.94466,
        38.121105
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 38.5562,
    "trend_reference": 37.002639,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.041985,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 27.103145,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.422573,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 0.796034,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.108241,
    "excess_performance": -0.017384,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041985,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076443,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.422573,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123458,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00796,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.129595,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.108241,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.802608,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 29484,
      "relative_activity": 0.556857,
      "balance": 1.802608,
      "dry_up": 0.606213,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.070989,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.238611,
      "from_high_reference": -0.151025,
      "from_low_reference": 0.405949
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 37.002639,
      "fair_value_reference": 27.103145,
      "structural_low": 32.642406,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.007652,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003183,
        "regime_survival": 0.545455,
        "best_return": 0.130616,
        "worst_return": -0.039246,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.036989,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01434,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.224506,
        "worst_return": 0.000737,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.056648,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.050325,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.079924,
        "worst_return": 0.033382,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.125332,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.106406,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.17264,
        "worst_return": 0.078023,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-02-09",
        "end": "2024-02-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014448,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-02-23",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.051205,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.063554,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.039775,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011411,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011398,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033134,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.024112,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.051548,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017063,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.310889,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "return": 0.135078,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.026523,
        "active": true
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    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 58609.55,
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        "relative_strength": 7.944541,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 57.066667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 37.9917,
        "volume": 42812,
        "typical_volume": 57767.85,
        "trend": 36.437375,
        "fair_value": 26.788913,
        "relative_strength": 4.091944,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.392213,
        "energy": 23.666742,
        "activity_lines": [
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          38.885946,
          37.855079
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 37.56,
        "volume": 26308,
        "typical_volume": 55682.7,
        "trend": 36.6373,
        "fair_value": 26.887974,
        "relative_strength": 3.244313,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.617563,
        "energy": 19.971594,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.56882,
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          38.881391,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 37.9015,
        "volume": 29785,
        "typical_volume": 53729.1,
        "trend": 36.819618,
        "fair_value": 26.992231,
        "relative_strength": 2.789311,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.799488,
        "energy": 18.821756,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.19064,
          39.016561,
          38.891644,
          38.009067
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 38.5562,
        "volume": 29484,
        "typical_volume": 52947.15,
        "trend": 37.002639,
        "fair_value": 27.103145,
        "relative_strength": 0.796034,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 11.658037,
        "energy": 14.336467,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.19726,
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          38.94466,
          38.121105
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}