{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac5adb07-e17b-48a4-9c53-99f4c4fa5adc", "symbol": "HIGHCO-B", "name": "High Coast Distillery AB (Publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.4, "architecture_energy": 53.474, "architecture_maturity": 93.901, "architecture_confidence": 91.935, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 18.66, "upward_expansion": 8.81, "deceleration": 46.53, "rotation_down": 62.79, "downward_expansion": 84.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.906667, 28.581818, 29.918095, 31.136774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.0, "trend_reference": 32.893333, "distance_from_trend": -0.148764, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.478846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.340848, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.677835, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.263158, "excess_performance": -0.324652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148764, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088491, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.340848, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263158, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.64325, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3711, "relative_activity": 1.82619, "balance": 0.64325, "dry_up": 0.879017, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087363, "annualized_volatility": 0.273588, "from_high_reference": -0.495495, "from_low_reference": 0.044776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.893333, "fair_value_reference": 42.478846, "structural_low": 26.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.026549, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.049436, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.130653, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.104654, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.163492, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.073529, "worst_return": -0.14375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.078156, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.326028, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.04902, "worst_return": -0.227053, "sufficient": 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"volume": 1441, "typical_volume": 2011.0, "trend": 33.58, "fair_value": 42.799359, "relative_strength": -33.794604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.675473, "energy": 75.982575, "activity_lines": [ 28.373334, 29.345455, 30.666667, 31.868817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.4, "volume": 1539, "typical_volume": 1966.95, "trend": 33.166666, "fair_value": 42.632692, "relative_strength": -35.052397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.048916, "energy": 76.817484, "activity_lines": [ 27.933333, 28.869091, 30.245714, 31.470107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.0, "volume": 3711, "typical_volume": 2032.1, "trend": 32.893333, "fair_value": 42.478846, "relative_strength": -33.677835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.40024, "energy": 53.473516, "activity_lines": [ 27.906667, 28.581818, 29.918095, 31.136774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }