{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac5fdb77-ca26-4574-8ba0-4e485681b2ca", "symbol": "TDSB", "name": "ETC CABANA TARGET BETA ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.134, "architecture_energy": 10.295, "architecture_maturity": 12.58, "architecture_confidence": 52.627, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.19, "rotation_up": 26.63, "upward_expansion": 26.32, "deceleration": 63.06, "rotation_down": 39.49, "downward_expansion": 27.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.55962, 24.557364, 24.596947, 24.590786 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.7426, "trend_reference": 24.564564, "distance_from_trend": 0.007248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.932653, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.032102, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01489, "excess_performance": -0.172563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007248, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011045, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.128117, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025358, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016591, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01489, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.398799, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18586, "relative_activity": 0.728581, "balance": 3.398799, "dry_up": 0.694663, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011341, "annualized_volatility": 0.067768, "from_high_reference": -0.015807, "from_low_reference": 0.11985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.564564, "fair_value_reference": 21.932653, "structural_low": 23.877121, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002009, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014767, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.012704, "worst_return": -0.031543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008982, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.077084, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.044881, "worst_return": -0.018233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028682, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.061344, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.046983, "worst_return": -0.026486, 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.705333, "energy": 6.094438, "activity_lines": [ 24.55693, 24.580938, 24.602051, 24.585366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.5449, "volume": 9128, "typical_volume": 27515.35, "trend": 24.522066, "fair_value": 21.865463, "relative_strength": -6.124036, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.060818, "energy": 7.404844, "activity_lines": [ 24.550987, 24.568812, 24.598335, 24.588016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.3639, "volume": 11990, "typical_volume": 25881.8, "trend": 24.541496, "fair_value": 21.89762, "relative_strength": -7.109478, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.460201, "energy": 24.231117, "activity_lines": [ 24.484993, 24.524858, 24.578826, 24.577812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.7426, "volume": 18586, "typical_volume": 25509.85, "trend": 24.564564, "fair_value": 21.932653, "relative_strength": -10.032102, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.134306, "energy": 10.294715, "activity_lines": [ 24.55962, 24.557364, 24.596947, 24.590786 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }