{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac60d7d8-6584-4c14-8654-775bbb82fce2", "symbol": "000590", "name": "Guhan Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.587, "architecture_energy": 62.607, "architecture_maturity": 82.914, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 26.72, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.86, "rotation_down": 55.44, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.307333, 8.416182, 9.139143, 9.776688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.79, "trend_reference": 10.518333, "distance_from_trend": -0.164316, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.933462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016059, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.478758, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.215179, "excess_performance": -0.222578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.164316, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082997, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016059, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255519, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015356, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215179, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.508257, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17817850, "relative_activity": 1.080977, "balance": 0.508257, "dry_up": 1.243074, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07596, "annualized_volatility": 0.278252, "from_high_reference": -0.354626, "from_low_reference": 0.176707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.518333, "fair_value_reference": 8.933462, "structural_low": 7.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.024083, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.016349, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.63949, "worst_return": -0.177843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015064, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.065316, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.849095, "worst_return": -0.255988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.001256, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.219809, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.585513, "worst_return": -0.268041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"down", "direction": -83.389968, "energy": 92.197598, "activity_lines": [ 9.530667, 10.002909, 10.657524, 10.947763 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 8.4, "volume": 4548100, "typical_volume": 18574487.0, "trend": 11.112333, "fair_value": 8.941282, "relative_strength": -38.429374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.293003, "energy": 96.018148, "activity_lines": [ 9.076667, 9.645091, 10.398524, 10.766882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 8.65, "volume": 4392286, "typical_volume": 17525609.2, "trend": 11.014, "fair_value": 8.943013, "relative_strength": -35.245864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.777579, "energy": 91.534411, "activity_lines": [ 8.842, 9.383455, 10.176667, 10.608022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.19, "volume": 23506507, "typical_volume": 16895252.3, "trend": 10.902, "fair_value": 8.94359, "relative_strength": -35.682192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.512696, "energy": 93.243277, "activity_lines": [ 8.554, 9.081455, 9.92581, 10.425828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.21, "volume": 26070832, "typical_volume": 17237127.25, "trend": 10.806333, "fair_value": 8.940321, "relative_strength": -28.015838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.130056, "energy": 89.263583, "activity_lines": [ 8.379333, 8.837091, 9.696952, 10.252151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.71, "volume": 22263737, "typical_volume": 16774816.05, "trend": 10.694333, "fair_value": 8.934423, "relative_strength": -31.81105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.332493, "energy": 80.697025, "activity_lines": [ 8.110667, 8.553091, 9.439476, 10.052387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.23, "volume": 15806400, "typical_volume": 16598289.45, "trend": 10.599, "fair_value": 8.932308, "relative_strength": -25.329251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.578738, "energy": 66.665301, "activity_lines": [ 8.11, 8.413636, 9.253571, 9.893398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.79, "volume": 17817850, "typical_volume": 16483097.15, "trend": 10.518333, "fair_value": 8.933462, "relative_strength": -23.478758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.587119, "energy": 62.607319, "activity_lines": [ 8.307333, 8.416182, 9.139143, 9.776688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }