{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac68dc18-1712-4ff1-a58f-38ad59e72266", "symbol": "RNRG", "name": "Global X Renewable Energy Producers UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.004, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.906, "architecture_energy": 45.892, "architecture_maturity": 11.937, "architecture_confidence": 67.776, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.59, "rotation_up": 18.77, "upward_expansion": 14.97, "deceleration": 52.45, "rotation_down": 67.35, "downward_expansion": 56.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.7072, 12.883091, 13.296448, 13.35672 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.679, "trend_reference": 13.3353, "distance_from_trend": -0.049215, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.745407, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179946, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.291821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021984, "excess_performance": -0.073219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033466, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179946, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021984, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.679224, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14766, "relative_activity": 1.69986, "balance": 1.679224, "dry_up": 1.896225, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038234, "annualized_volatility": 0.179572, "from_high_reference": -0.127632, "from_low_reference": 0.248916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.3353, "fair_value_reference": 10.745407, "structural_low": 12.046, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.02644, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01394, "worst_return": -0.038939, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.029535, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041621, "worst_return": -0.100692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.003783, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064979, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035661, "worst_return": -0.028095, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"fair_value": 10.728452, "relative_strength": -1.862439, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.673856, "energy": 62.506033, "activity_lines": [ 12.9482, 13.266873, 13.532824, 13.472905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.058, "volume": 18342, "typical_volume": 6544.6, "trend": 13.315967, "fair_value": 10.73401, "relative_strength": -1.959635, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.528726, "energy": 57.61014, "activity_lines": [ 12.964733, 13.183673, 13.487448, 13.458716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.378, "volume": 30783, "typical_volume": 8000.6, "trend": 13.321967, "fair_value": 10.737843, "relative_strength": -8.210038, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.205575, "energy": 66.106108, "activity_lines": [ 12.762267, 12.991455, 13.376681, 13.398202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.679, "volume": 14766, "typical_volume": 8686.6, "trend": 13.3353, "fair_value": 10.745407, "relative_strength": -6.291821, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.906008, "energy": 45.89212, "activity_lines": [ 12.7072, 12.883091, 13.296448, 13.35672 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }