{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac6bbd36-0679-445d-aeba-1b1a0ee06996", "symbol": "603813", "name": "GuangDong GenSho Logistics Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.287, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.559, "architecture_energy": 48.901, "architecture_maturity": 8.282, "architecture_confidence": 60.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.44, "rotation_up": 7.22, "upward_expansion": 15.32, "deceleration": 46.37, "rotation_down": 69.28, "downward_expansion": 78.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.636667, 33.212546, 34.259429, 34.117893 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.200001, "trend_reference": 34.944, "distance_from_trend": -0.078526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.200774, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.677016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.295786, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.231504, "excess_performance": -0.1883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022071, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.677016, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.590137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012958, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.35632, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.231504, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.023075, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3107300, "relative_activity": 0.838782, "balance": 1.023075, "dry_up": 1.051636, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136718, "annualized_volatility": 0.823685, "from_high_reference": -0.318951, "from_low_reference": 1.117028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.944, "fair_value_reference": 19.200774, "structural_low": 21.719999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.016187, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.003522, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.192905, "worst_return": -0.153175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00938, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.040736, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.371986, "worst_return": -0.219534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.063265, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033927, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.389208, "worst_return": -0.209063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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37.277091, 34.858143, 35.346344 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 36.0, "volume": 1249200, "typical_volume": 3865964.2, "trend": 36.113, "fair_value": 18.490611, "relative_strength": 17.84177, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.541772, "energy": 14.101034, "activity_lines": [ 37.306667, 37.247637, 35.007762, 35.334108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 34.549999, "volume": 600400, "typical_volume": 3683419.2, "trend": 35.959667, "fair_value": 18.625618, "relative_strength": 11.314766, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.570594, "energy": 9.37261, "activity_lines": [ 36.546, 36.798182, 35.047381, 35.233269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.990002, "volume": 5163731, "typical_volume": 3716520.7, "trend": 35.851333, "fair_value": 18.764451, "relative_strength": 12.674862, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.874632, "energy": 6.989012, "activity_lines": [ 35.996667, 36.406364, 35.146953, 35.17071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.970001, "volume": 3729700, "typical_volume": 3725425.7, "trend": 35.740334, "fair_value": 18.891662, "relative_strength": 14.714248, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.135188, "energy": 11.905623, "activity_lines": [ 35.124667, 35.865637, 35.139905, 35.049334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.9, "volume": 4248000, "typical_volume": 3712800.7, "trend": 35.384667, "fair_value": 18.977641, "relative_strength": -7.675857, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.153349, "energy": 40.751583, "activity_lines": [ 32.363334, 34.322728, 34.553048, 34.543506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.73, "volume": 4498300, "typical_volume": 3769361.8, "trend": 35.142334, "fair_value": 19.087795, "relative_strength": 3.544672, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.196418, "energy": 43.76962, "activity_lines": [ 31.779334, 33.672546, 34.379, 34.307721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.200001, "volume": 3107300, "typical_volume": 3704536.8, "trend": 34.944, "fair_value": 19.200774, "relative_strength": 1.295786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.558575, "energy": 48.901035, "activity_lines": [ 31.636667, 33.212546, 34.259429, 34.117893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }