{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac6f799f-df30-43c6-8a40-c4bbc731d97a", "symbol": "2293", "name": "Bamboos Health Care Holdings Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.861, "architecture_energy": 50.094, "architecture_maturity": 78.741, "architecture_confidence": 80.366, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.08, "rotation_up": 13.99, "upward_expansion": 7.85, "deceleration": 44.46, "rotation_down": 65.67, "downward_expansion": 83.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.364333, 0.374091, 0.383452, 0.39443 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.36, "trend_reference": 0.415833, "distance_from_trend": -0.134269, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.537767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.330565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.344317, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.265306, "excess_performance": -0.250015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085962, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.330565, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01457, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223443, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006108, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265306, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.495413, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72000, "relative_activity": 0.767591, "balance": 2.495413, "dry_up": 3.176972, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094017, "annualized_volatility": 0.428569, "from_high_reference": -0.360501, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.415833, "fair_value_reference": 0.537767, "structural_low": 0.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.015512, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.02948, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.118421, "worst_return": -0.122222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.031819, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.147294, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.108772, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.062554, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.156537, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.137868, "worst_return": -0.27, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015873, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062502, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113999, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", 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"typical_volume": 111200.0, "trend": 0.432333, "fair_value": 0.543742, "relative_strength": -20.803725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.449874, "energy": 40.704988, "activity_lines": [ 0.387667, 0.393636, 0.395643, 0.410161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.37, "volume": 728000, "typical_volume": 145200.0, "trend": 0.428, "fair_value": 0.542293, "relative_strength": -21.869933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.031195, "energy": 35.21857, "activity_lines": [ 0.382, 0.389091, 0.392381, 0.40614 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.36, "volume": 120000, "typical_volume": 103400.0, "trend": 0.423667, "fair_value": 0.54078, "relative_strength": -22.671733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.44009, "energy": 53.805251, "activity_lines": [ 0.373333, 0.382909, 0.388643, 0.401753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 0.37, "volume": 272000, "typical_volume": 112200.0, "trend": 0.419833, "fair_value": 0.539331, "relative_strength": -18.090955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.579931, "energy": 57.167212, "activity_lines": [ 0.368333, 0.379273, 0.386333, 0.39829 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 0.36, "volume": 72000, "typical_volume": 93800.0, "trend": 0.415833, "fair_value": 0.537767, "relative_strength": -22.344317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.860595, "energy": 50.093678, "activity_lines": [ 0.364333, 0.374091, 0.383452, 0.39443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }