{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac713f9a-be8d-4007-a669-8688624484c3", "symbol": "XDWH", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Health Care UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.668, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.406, "architecture_energy": 56.918, "architecture_maturity": 6.588, "architecture_confidence": 73.006, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.38, "rotation_up": 69.2, "upward_expansion": 84.56, "deceleration": 51.1, "rotation_down": 14.48, "downward_expansion": 8.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.790666, 60.262727, 58.822143, 58.298258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 61.459999, "trend_reference": 58.126333, "distance_from_trend": 0.057352, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.94708, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139265, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.608257, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028619, "excess_performance": -0.022616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057352, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008852, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139265, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10656, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006083, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054799, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028619, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.920194, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107719, "relative_activity": 0.779942, "balance": 1.920194, "dry_up": 1.380274, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031115, "annualized_volatility": 0.171125, "from_high_reference": -0.015537, "from_low_reference": 0.236371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.126333, "fair_value_reference": 53.94708, "structural_low": 54.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.003285, "positive_rate": 0.586207, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.002557, "regime_survival": 0.655172, "best_return": 0.054575, "worst_return": -0.092216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.038823, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.020096, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.109951, "worst_return": -0.078892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003404, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.02801, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.073984, "worst_return": -0.057542, "sufficient": true }, 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"activity_lines": [ 60.180667, 59.105182, 57.811429, 57.756484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.549999, "volume": 224166, "typical_volume": 132896.75, "trend": 58.01, "fair_value": 53.799484, "relative_strength": -0.493611, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.574267, "energy": 66.162536, "activity_lines": [ 60.508667, 59.529637, 58.139572, 57.924172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.419998, "volume": 196388, "typical_volume": 137659.4, "trend": 58.071667, "fair_value": 53.872689, "relative_strength": -1.937104, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.265456, "energy": 60.277431, "activity_lines": [ 60.493333, 59.835, 58.440405, 58.079656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.459999, "volume": 107719, "typical_volume": 138111.55, "trend": 58.126333, "fair_value": 53.94708, "relative_strength": -0.608257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.40617, "energy": 56.918494, "activity_lines": [ 60.790666, 60.262727, 58.822143, 58.298258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }