{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac72627f-ec0f-4892-9d10-9eacd9fa4750", "symbol": "MFD", "name": "Mayfield Childcare Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.989, "architecture_energy": 89.73, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.628, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 15.95, "upward_expansion": 21.42, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 77.76, "downward_expansion": 99.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.136333, 0.159455, 0.213119, 0.259086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.326667, "distance_from_trend": -0.602041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.514239, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.747199, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -66.580278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.745098, "excess_performance": -0.808804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.602041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.747199, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.665803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.43957, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.745098, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.832694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137466, "relative_activity": 3.801241, "balance": 0.832694, "dry_up": 2.702473, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.233094, "annualized_volatility": 1.085063, "from_high_reference": -0.763636, "from_low_reference": 0.120004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.326667, "fair_value_reference": 0.514239, "structural_low": 0.116071, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.021243, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.033981, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.418366, "worst_return": -0.423077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.100464, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.083368, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.308057, "worst_return": -0.608696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.113659, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.179812, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.391304, "worst_return": -0.379629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042554, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007195, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067669, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108754, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.4, 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"close": 0.19, "volume": 53603, "typical_volume": 61453.2, "trend": 0.3735, "fair_value": 0.537324, "relative_strength": -50.770731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.860789, "energy": 87.294853, "activity_lines": [ 0.193333, 0.225909, 0.271667, 0.316237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.15, "volume": 123030, "typical_volume": 41020.9, "trend": 0.3625, "fair_value": 0.531673, "relative_strength": -60.75812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.876881, "energy": 91.976822, "activity_lines": [ 0.173667, 0.207273, 0.256286, 0.301817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.135, "volume": 119572, "typical_volume": 39974.6, "trend": 0.351, "fair_value": 0.525894, "relative_strength": -64.234105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.413637, "energy": 89.319138, "activity_lines": [ 0.157, 0.188909, 0.241119, 0.28714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.125, "volume": 10855, "typical_volume": 37250.0, "trend": 0.338833, "fair_value": 0.520018, "relative_strength": -67.241693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.920202, "energy": 89.462799, "activity_lines": [ 0.145333, 0.172, 0.226357, 0.272559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 137466, "typical_volume": 36163.45, "trend": 0.326667, "fair_value": 0.514239, "relative_strength": -66.580278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.989292, "energy": 89.729794, "activity_lines": [ 0.136333, 0.159455, 0.213119, 0.259086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }