{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac782d6c-3e5d-447f-833c-e69af2b93bd1", "symbol": "CMCSA", "name": "Comcast Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.053, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.667, "architecture_energy": 23.609, "architecture_maturity": 57.512, "architecture_confidence": 75.471, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.3, "rotation_up": 29.61, "upward_expansion": 22.21, "deceleration": 43.18, "rotation_down": 26.68, "downward_expansion": 56.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.045, 23.710857, 24.203264, 25.301225 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.36, "trend_reference": 26.726637, "distance_from_trend": -0.051134, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.656822, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.172778, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.63097, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.182074, "excess_performance": -0.369527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051134, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01313, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.172778, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031357, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088723, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.182074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.263442, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145410307, "relative_activity": 0.901541, "balance": 1.263442, "dry_up": 1.04357, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070132, "annualized_volatility": 0.303432, "from_high_reference": -0.219162, "from_low_reference": 0.191729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.726637, "fair_value_reference": 30.656822, "structural_low": 21.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.005597, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003453, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.132113, "worst_return": -0.161756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029143, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.004904, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.309464, "worst_return": -0.14209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001658, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053811, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.200068, "worst_return": -0.216416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -25.015302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.774229, "energy": 51.257425, "activity_lines": [ 23.331687, 23.573096, 24.948668, 26.092398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.79, "volume": 151997807, "typical_volume": 166380023.7, "trend": 26.971793, "fair_value": 30.89966, "relative_strength": -20.369604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.354974, "energy": 43.024305, "activity_lines": [ 23.495118, 23.555786, 24.703189, 25.883229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.295, "volume": 202166418, "typical_volume": 170211341.45, "trend": 26.859037, "fair_value": 30.809312, "relative_strength": -23.52841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.583627, "energy": 47.988928, "activity_lines": [ 23.185147, 23.289597, 24.347758, 25.581501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.96, "volume": 173698259, "typical_volume": 172144283.2, "trend": 26.805245, "fair_value": 30.731648, "relative_strength": -17.685109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.768489, "energy": 34.704336, "activity_lines": [ 23.418667, 23.364779, 24.194917, 25.394466 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.36, "volume": 145410307, "typical_volume": 161290817.05, "trend": 26.726637, "fair_value": 30.656822, "relative_strength": -16.63097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.667074, "energy": 23.609229, "activity_lines": [ 24.045, 23.710857, 24.203264, 25.301225 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }