{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac7a7875-8fd7-4223-b485-99a2d8e833df", "symbol": "8121", "name": "Acme Electronics Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.575, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.798, "architecture_energy": 36.34, "architecture_maturity": 43.1, "architecture_confidence": 60.644, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.19, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 17.26, "deceleration": 63.75, "rotation_down": 67.74, "downward_expansion": 44.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.573333, 34.722727, 36.766667, 34.86914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.6, "trend_reference": 32.546667, "distance_from_trend": -0.090537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.941026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02277, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.103757, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125475, "excess_performance": -0.315897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090537, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129047, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02277, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.281038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200471, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125475, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.253234, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5007067, "relative_activity": 0.456991, "balance": 2.253234, "dry_up": 0.495146, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.251949, "annualized_volatility": 0.718545, "from_high_reference": -0.482517, "from_low_reference": 0.677054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.546667, "fair_value_reference": 28.941026, "structural_low": 22.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.02042, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.027757, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.033748, "worst_return": -0.118938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.108209, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.135877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.057554, "worst_return": -0.228507, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.195244, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.143899, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.422662, "worst_return": -0.382022, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.183369, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076628, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035971, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044293, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056202, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", 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43.66, 38.853095, 35.700968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.25, "volume": 6800512, "typical_volume": 10435231.8, "trend": 32.588333, "fair_value": 28.902564, "relative_strength": -21.09202, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.615161, "energy": 19.217344, "activity_lines": [ 38.126666, 41.580909, 38.548095, 35.622796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.049999, "volume": 5960303, "typical_volume": 10651474.15, "trend": 32.563333, "fair_value": 28.909615, "relative_strength": -28.068037, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.080244, "energy": 22.405867, "activity_lines": [ 33.773333, 38.97, 37.912381, 35.33 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.35, "volume": 3932549, "typical_volume": 10753372.9, "trend": 32.53, "fair_value": 28.919231, "relative_strength": -28.876487, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.986692, "energy": 36.904447, "activity_lines": [ 30.8, 36.622727, 37.287619, 35.058172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 29.6, "volume": 5007067, "typical_volume": 10956591.1, "trend": 32.546667, "fair_value": 28.941026, "relative_strength": -28.103757, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.798166, "energy": 36.339571, "activity_lines": [ 29.573333, 34.722727, 36.766667, 34.86914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }